The NHL trade deadline will be here on March 7. Before the biggest targets find their new homes, what are the biggest mistakes that teams make around this time of year? What temptations should general managers avoid?
The trade deadline is a time for teams to fix their holes. But that doesn’t mean pursuing absolute perfection. Trying to accumulate “perfect” depth is largely a waste of time and assets. Depending on the cost, being so obsessed with depth players can lead to a collapse.
For starters, these players tend to be expensive. Trent Frederic, Ryan Donato, Jake Evans, Scott Laughton, and others could go for a pretty penny. Contenders see their third and fourth lines as needing a boost, so they’ll spend to get it. This happens every deadline, and we accept it.
But why? Is there any team in the NHL that’s a Frederic, Donato, Evans, or Laughton away from a Stanley Cup?
Everyone wants to be the next Tampa Bay Lightning, who gave up a first-round pick for Barclay Goodrow a while back. That kind of inspired a movement.
But make no mistake, they were more so led by their dominant Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov line. From the 2020 to 2021 playoffs, that trio had a goal differential per 60 minutes of plus-1.80 at 5-on-5 play. When each of those three was off the ice, the team had a goal differential per 60 minutes of plus-0.19.
To simplify, all other lines sort of just “survived” their minutes. They didn’t quite move the needle. The Point line decimated opponents, however. Bottom sixes don’t have the impact that they are perceived to.
I’ll elaborate on it later, but the cost doesn’t justify the reward. Waiver claims and in-house replacements can make for a passable fourth line—a good one probably isn’t the difference between a championship and not. A third-line player, too, can apply here.
Another thing that teams do is misdiagnose their needs. They simply care too much about the wrong things.
For example, the Edmonton Oilers last season spent a first-round pick on Adam Henrique. While he was fairly good and helped shore up their offensive depth, with a plus-3 rating at 5-on-5 during the postseason, his team had bigger issues.