There is no question that the positive vibes are flowing right now for the Chicago Cubs. At 9-2, they have the best spring training winning percentage in all of MLB.
They have a new top dog in the linup in Kyle Tucker. Young center-fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like a breakout star. Sammy Sosa is even making appearances in the dugout. Things are good.
There is also quite a bit of pressure on the team to perform this year. The organization only guaranteed itself one year of Tucker’s services in acquiring him from the Houston Astros, and president of baseball operations Jedd Hoyer paid a pretty penny to do so.
The Cubs have enough talent to remain relevant in the playoff picture for the next few years, but without Tucker, the World Series window may only be a year long.
In an MLB.com article drafting teams by their likelihood of winning the 2025 World Series, Mike Petriello and Will Leitch did not let Chicago make it out of the top 10, with Leitch taking them at the No. 10 spot.
“I’m iffy about this pick, but I’m iffy about everyone in the NL Central,” Leitch wrote. “I’m picking the Cubs more because I think they’re the best team in the division than because I’m particularly blown away by their roster. If you’re going to trade for Kyle Tucker when he has one season before free agency, well, then logic would dictate that you’d pour everything into that season.”
“Instead, the Cubs traded away Cody Bellinger and their offer to Alex Bregman appeared to fall well short,” he continued. “The good news for them is that they should still have enough to win the NL Central. That alone makes them a top-10 World Series title contender, even if you’re left frustrated that this team didn’t do more to bolster its position.”
Leitch is correct that the Cubs appear poised to win the NL Central, and popular predictive models don’t think it will even be close. PECOTA projects Chicago as a 91-win team with a 9% chance of winning it all, and the next highest estimated win total in the Central is the Milwaukee Brewers at 79.7.
The strength of this roster led by Tucker, co-aces Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Crow-Amstrong should keep the good times rolling on the North Side well into the summer, but this Cubs team will ultimately be judged on what it achieves in the fall.