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The trade
Stars get: Forward Mikko Rantanen
Hurricanes get: Forward Logan Stankoven, first-round picks in 2026 and 2027, third-round picks in 2026 and 2027
Mark Lazerus: Dallas has been two wins away from the Stanley Cup Final in each of the last two years and was two wins from a championship in 2020. The time is now, and GM Jim Nill knows it. It’s never a bad idea to add one of the best players in the world, damn the consequences. This almost feels like a Vegas trade — get the best player you can right now, and worry about how to make the math work later.
And there is indeed some math ahead for Nill. Jamie Benn’s $9.5 million cap hit comes off the books this summer, and you have to wonder if the Stars stalwart’s time in Dallas is over. But Wyatt Johnston is due a big raise as a restricted free agent and Tyler Seguin (who is now on long-term injured reserve) will be back on the books next season. Oh, and Jason Robertson and Thomas Harley come due next summer. The cap’s going up, but will it be enough?
Whatever. Worry about that later. Go win the Cup now. Dallas has been one of the very best teams in hockey for years now, and just added the best player available. Rantanen’s brief tenure in Raleigh wasn’t very productive — two goals and four assists in 13 games — but his underlying numbers were terrific. He’s been a scoring-chance machine with the Hurricanes, and that’ll continue in Dallas. This is a moose of a man who’s had 101 points in 81 career playoff games. The puck will start going in eventually. Three first-round picks, a third and Logan Stankoven is a steep price, but Rantanen, Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci is a heck of a haul. The West is loaded, but Dallas is now very much the team to beat. That’s all that matters.
Carolina GM Eric Tulsky did his best to salvage the situation, and Stankoven is an exciting young talent who acquitted himself well in the playoffs as a rookie last spring. Two first-round picks (sure to be very late in the round both times, given how well Dallas is set up for the future) is potential ammo for future deals, too. But this whole ordeal is an undeniable body blow for the Hurricanes. And it didn’t have to be this way. It’s understandable that the Hurricanes were deeply concerned about Rantanen bailing after watching Jake Guentzel leave last summer. And their fears clearly were well-founded, as Rantanen reportedly took less than what Carolina offered to sign in Dallas (another win for the tax-free states).
But Carolina has been a Stanley Cup contender for years now and has just two conference-final sweeps to show for it. In a wide-open Eastern Conference, this could have been the Hurricanes’ best chance. So what if Rantanen turned out to be a rental? Contenders rent. Win the Cup and whatever happens next wouldn’t have hurt nearly as much. Flags fly forever, as they say. And hey, a deep run might have convinced Rantanen that Raleigh — as rocking a place as any in the postseason — was the place to be. Alas. Making the best of a bad situation will have to do.
Stars grade: A
Hurricanes grade: C+
Dom Luszczyszyn: The Mikko Rantanen trade saga is over. Just 40 days after a shocking trade that seemingly solved Carolina’s star-power problems, Rantanen was flipped to the Stars. To say there are a lot of considerations to this deal is an understatement.
From deciding what the maximum price they could stomach on a Rantanen extension, to deciding whether to use him for an extension-less playoff run, to the arbitrage opportunity in front of them via trade — there’s a lot to unpack from Carolina’s perspective. It’s the most fascinatingly complex trade tree we’ve seen in a long time.
At the end of it, the Hurricanes end up with Logan Stankoven, two first-round picks, and two third-round picks. There are two ways to look at that.
The first is that while it’s a fine haul for an extended Rantanen, the Canes end up with a bunch of futures and no Rantanen. Stankoven is a great young player with a lot of upside, but he is obviously no Rantanen. The Hurricanes’ chances of winning a Cup this year take a substantial hit. Even in the future, do the Cup probability gains Stankoven gives them in future years make up for what they lose this year without Rantanen? That’s tough to say. With Rantanen, the Hurricanes had a great shot to win it all this year and it’s difficult to say whether Stankoven gets them that close in future years. A lot depends on what they do with that pick haul.
The second is the art of the deal. Think of the Hurricanes acting as a middleman here and picture this haul for Martin Necas instead. The chances of the Hurricanes pulling this package off for Necas — a player who seemingly wanted out — feel extremely slim. Technically, that’s a win. Technically, the Hurricanes are better off than they were 41 days ago.
But they’re also not better than they were one-to-40 days ago. With Rantanen. And that’s where it’s easy to love what the Stars did here by actually getting the superstar.
The Stars got Rantanen. They got the best player in the deal, a player with 100-point talent who can drive play. He may not have put up points in Carolina, but his underlying numbers pointed to someone who moves the needle in a big way. Dallas got him signed for the next eight years at a solid price — reportedly less than Carolina offered (and only a shade more than Colorado). That’s a huge win.
The Stars immediately become the team to beat, now and arguably going forward. Their Cup odds jumped from 8.8 percent before the deal to roughly 15 percent now. They are a substantially better team than they were yesterday. The price paid? An easily acceptable one for a franchise star and one of the best players in the world. Again, huge win. Flags fly forever, who cares about a couple of late firsts and a forward who will probably never come close to being as good as Rantanen is now.
Most importantly it shows that the Stars are serious about winning, something that comes into question with Carolina’s decision-making here. The Hurricanes made out technically better than where they were 40 days ago. That’s a small win. They also mitigate the risk of losing Rantanen for nothing this summer given he seemed uninterested in extending there. That’s another small win. The fear after last year’s Jake Guentzel situation obviously played a role. But the Hurricanes are also a lot less likely to win a Cup this year than they were yesterday. It’s hard to see that as anything but a loss.
And maybe this sage isn’t over yet. Maybe it turns into a win depending on what the Hurricanes do with the return. But from this vantage point, it looks like the Hurricanes are content hitting singles while the Stars are swinging for the fences.
Modest returns are nice, but sometimes you have to hit a home run.
Stars grade: A
Hurricanes grade: B-
(Photo: Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
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