How the Red Wings’ top 12 prospects are performing: Late-season update

With another ugly loss Saturday in Las Vegas, the Red Wings’ season once again appears to be slipping away. An eight-year playoff drought looks increasingly likely to reach nine — which would tie for the fourth-longest in NHL history.

For a fan base that has been as patient as virtually any other in the league — save for Buffalo — that emerging reality has led to significant frustration. Detroit has had enough of waiting for next year.

And yet, while a crucial offseason awaits the Red Wings and general manager Steve Yzerman, many of the most crucial long-term pieces for Detroit are the prospects already within their system, working their way up from college hockey, juniors, Europe and AHL Grand Rapids. And with most of those seasons winding down, that makes this a good time for an update on how Detroit’s top 12 prospects are trending.

Amadeus Lombardi, C/W, Grand Rapids (AHL)

Lombardi missed a large chunk of the middle of the season due to injury, but when he’s been in the lineup, he’s taken a big leap. His 27 points in 34 games have already topped his production from 70 games last season, and his 13 goals are more than double his total last year — and good for fourth on the team despite all that time missed.

He credited that jump to “a blend of stuff,” starting with a big summer and the confidence that comes with his second season in the AHL, as well as familiarity with the coaching staff. Lombardi is also playing more, allowing him to stay in the flow of the game more than he could in a down-lineup role last season.

His success only made the missed time more unfortunate, as Lombardi told me this was the first major injury he’s had in his young career. It was hard on him mentally being away from the team. It’s also been rough on a Griffins team that has had a difficult time creating offense this season.

But now he’s back and mixing in some reps on the wing as well, adding some positional versatility that will be an asset whenever he reaches the NHL. He has some dynamic qualities with the puck and in his skating.

“He’s playing with pace, he’s got high-end skill, he’s making high-end plays and that’s something we lacked while he was out of the lineup,” Griffins coach Dan Watson told me last week. “He’s adding some offense to our game, which we needed. Just love his energy, love his compete level, that’s kind of what he’s bringing right now.”

The next step for Lombardi, Watson added, is making sure he can bring that offensive swagger and explosiveness while still being responsible defensively. But by any measure, it’s already been a successful season for the 2022 fourth-round pick.

Nate Danielson, C, Grand Rapids (AHL)

Danielson has started to find his goal-scoring touch of late, with five of his nine goals this season coming since February 19. His overall production — 32 points in 61 games — won’t wow anyone, but it does come in context. Whether it’s been injuries (such as Lombardi and Carter Mazur) or call-ups (such as Elmer Söderblom, Sheldon Dries and Dominik Shine), this Griffins team has been without key talent up front for much of the season.

Watson feels Danielson is “still progressing nicely,” while noting he thinks the Griffins overplayed Danielson to compensate for those absences.

“He ate a ton of minutes, and I think that wore him down a little bit,” Watson said. “He’s starting to find that energy, that pop in his step again, and now the offense is coming too. He’s starting to score more goals, he’s starting to put points on the board, which for him that equals confidence. What we still need him to be is that good, 200-foot, reliable centerman, because he’s got some big matchups down the stretch here and into playoffs, so I think that’s just going to help him grow even more.”

Ideally, you’d want to see more production. There’s no way around that. But it’s worth noting that Danielson is still tracking ahead of where Marco Kasper was his first season in Grand Rapids a year ago, and Kasper has been one of the real bright spots on the Red Wings in the second half.

They’re not identical players — Danielson has a bit more natural skill and playmaking, while Kasper has more sandpaper and a non-stop motor — but the Griffins (and Red Wings) will be hoping for a similar arc out of Danielson. That starts with the playoffs, where Kasper was one of Grand Rapids’ best players last spring. Can Danielson do the same?

Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, F, Skellefteå (SHL)

The Red Wings let Brandsegg-Nygård go back to Sweden rather than play in Grand Rapids this season, and it’s hard not to wonder if the young forward has any regrets over that decision. He’s playing in the SHL playoffs right now and scored on Sunday, but in a diminished role, playing fourth-line minutes as the year has gone on. He had just five goals and 11 points in 42 regular-season games.

Brandsegg-Nygård didn’t have a typical year, as he was in North America with Detroit for training camp before joining Skellefteå, which had a tumultuous season, including a coaching change. But still, the numbers haven’t matched the pedigree — particularly in the goals column, where Brandsegg-Nygård’s shot is one of his best traits.

If Skellefteå’s postseason run is short enough (their first-round series is currently tied 1-1), there’s a chance fans could see him come to North America to get some reps with the Griffins down the stretch. And if that happens, it’s not hard to imagine Brandsegg-Nygård’s physicality and shot mentality fitting better in the AHL; he had the second-most shots on goal among SHL U20 players. The key will be the speed of the game on the smaller ice, and how well he can adjust to that.

Max Plante, F, Minnesota Duluth (NCAA)

You could argue that no Red Wings prospect improved their stock this season more than Plante, a 2024 second-round pick who also missed a significant portion of the season due to injury, but looked excellent when in the lineup. Plante’s 28 points in 23 games gave him the best points-per-game average of any U19 NCAA player this season (1.22), with the bulk of that in the assist column (19).

With his season now over, the eyes will turn toward having a big summer. Plante’s calling card is his smarts, but if he can get stronger and more explosive, it’s not hard to see a future top-nine NHL playmaker in the making.

Dmitri Buchelnikov, LW, Vityaz (KHL)

Buchelnikov’s numbers are impressive with 15 goals and 54 points in 65 KHL games at age 21. Certainly, that’s a welcome development in a Red Wings farm system that could use more pure skill.

But while the optimist could see Buchelnikov’s 0.83 points per game are not too far behind Kirill Kaprizov’s 0.89 at the same age in 2018-19, there are also some less familiar names in the same kind of range: Vasili Atanasov with 0.87 in 2023-24, Vladimir Tkachyov’s 0.80 in 2016-17, and Ivan Chekhovich with 0.79 in 2020-21.

That’s why, despite the strong statistical season, it’s best to exercise some caution before fully boarding this hype train. Detroit’s need for a skilled winger is real, and if he turns out to be an answer there, great. But it’s going to be hard to know exactly what to make of Buchelnikov until we see him in North America. There’s still a lot of variance.

Jesse Kiiskinen, RW, HPK (Liiga)

Kiiskinen likewise had a strong season, scoring nearly a point per game in Finland’s top league and potting six goals in seven games at the world juniors. He projects as more of a bottom-six energy type, with some scoring touch, but Detroit will nonetheless be happy to see those kinds of offensive results from him in a pro league.

He’s another player whom it would be interesting to see get a late-season run with the Griffins if Detroit can get him signed to his ELC in time.

Emmitt Finnie, C/W, Kamloops (WHL)

It was a standout age-19 campaign for Finnie in the WHL, as his 1.53 points per game place him among the league’s leaders. That’s certainly impressive from the 2023 seventh-round pick, though it may not come as a total surprise to Red Wings fans who have watched Finnie impress at every team prospect event (whether it’s been development camps or prospect tournaments) since he was drafted.

Finnie is already signed, so it feels like only a matter of time before he can join the Griffins, as he did late last season for three games. Expect him to rely more on his competitiveness and smarts as a pro, but like Kiiskinen, Detroit (and Grand Rapids) would take any offensive contributions he can bring.

William Wallinder, LHD, Grand Rapids (AHL)

Watson has been very pleased with Wallinder’s season, believing that he has taken another step in his game. He’s played top-pair minutes for the Griffins, as well as seeing time on both special teams. That’s usually a good indicator of trust.

“He’s looking like he could be in the NHL soon,” Watson said. “I think for him, another good offseason of building strength, but I like his competitiveness this year. It’s his compete in the corners, around the net, those hard areas, he’s doing that now — something we wanted him to grow into last year. With that said, he’s at his best when he’s moving his feet. He can be a human breakout machine. If he gets back there, he’s wheeling the net, now he can find his options.”

That compete is key for Wallinder, who is naturally more laid back. His physical tools, though, are such that if he can play with an edge, he starts to look every bit the part of an NHL defenseman at 6-foot-4 with sublime skating. He probably won’t be a major point-producer, but as Watson alluded, the skating gives him clear utility in both directions of transition. It’s just all about bringing some meanness and competitiveness to his shifts to maximize his defensive impact.

“I think that’s something he’s gotta really lean into here down the stretch into the playoffs again, is just doing that consistently,” Watson said. “Which he has been.”

Shai Buium, LHD, Grand Rapids (AHL)

Buium is another Griffins defender coming into his own, and the offense in particular has ticked up recently in his first AHL season.

He has eight points in his last 14 games, including his first two AHL goals, which gives him 23 points in 58 games on the season. Another year in Grand Rapids would do him well, but the late-season surge of offense is certainly a great sign of his growth in the league. Watson has seen steady improvement since Day 1.

“He’s become a responsible defenseman, a guy that can make plays. He sees the ice extremely well,” Watson said. “He’s got a deceptive shot and he just needs to use it more. He had a great one-timer for his first five-on-three goal, and now it’s just continually putting up those offensive numbers that he can, again being responsible defensively. I like his footwork, I think his skating has gotten better, his stick detail has gotten better around the net. It’s going to make him a complete defenseman.”

Axel Sandin-Pellikka, RHD, Skellefteå (SHL)

Sandin-Pellikka lived up to the high expectations set for him in the SHL. With 29 points in 46 games, he came up just short of breaking the points record for an under-20 defenseman in the league, but he did get there in the goals department with 12. He played a huge role, north of 20 minutes per night, and won his second consecutive award for being the best defenseman at the world juniors. That’s a successful season.

Now it’s all about what’s next. Sandin-Pellikka is on the same Skellefteå team as Brandsegg-Nygård, currently in the playoffs — where he had three assists Sunday — but if they go out early, I’d expect to see him in North America to end the year, either in Detroit or Grand Rapids.

If that happens, it’ll provide some valuable viewings on where his game is going into next year. The decision to put him in the NHL or AHL will be a major talking point heading into training camp.

Sebastian Cossa, G, Grand Rapids (AHL)

Cossa is on track to effectively replicate his rookie AHL season, with an identical .913 save percentage in a similar workload. He should surpass his 40 starts last season by year’s end, too.

With the playoffs looming, though, it’s all about how he finishes. These are the kind of late-season, high-pressure games in which the Red Wings will be most keen to see Cossa perform.

“I’ve lived it here now for the last couple seasons, this is where he shines,” Watson said last week. “And you can see it already the last four or five games he’s played, he’s been extremely solid in net, competitive, nothing’s bouncing off of him, he’s catching everything. So we need him to be that same way. Every start he has is very important for his mental psyche. He’s doing everything off the ice that he needs to do, so now it’s just performance. And again I’m looking forward to him stepping up his play down the stretch here.”

After that, the obvious question is about next season. With Detroit trading for Petr Mrázek, the Red Wings have two goalies under contract (Mrázek and Cam Talbot). That means Cossa would need to beat at least one of them out to start in the NHL. That’s how Detroit prefers to operate, making their prospects earn their NHL spots, and surely Cossa will know he needs a big playoff showing (and summer) to give himself that chance. Regardless, I expect to see him in Detroit at some point next season, whether it’s to start out or as a call-up.

Trey Augustine, G, Michigan State (NCAA)

Augustine has had another great season, with a .927 save percentage to lead one of the nation’s top teams at Michigan State. He’s one of the best goaltenders in college hockey.

That doesn’t leave him with much to prove in East Lansing, especially if Michigan State goes on a deep run in the NCAA tournament, but he certainly wouldn’t be hurt by going back for a third year. One big question: How does the Cossa situation affect that plan? If Cossa is back in Grand Rapids, then it may make the most sense for Augustine to do another year in college so both can start as many games as possible. But if Cossa seems destined for Detroit, turning pro becomes more practical.

This will be an interesting one to monitor, but first Augustine will have his sights set on chasing an NCAA title.

(Top photo of Amadeus Lombardi: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)