The Montreal Canadiens started the season 4-9-2, went on a 20-10-2 run, dropped eight of nine going into the 4 Nations Face-Off break, and are now in the midst of a scintillating 8-1-2 stretch. Talk about a roller-coaster season. Is the final destination a playoff spot?
It currently appears that way after a big Tuesday night win that put the Canadiens at the top of the Eastern Conference wild-card race. Their current projection of 88 points gives Montreal a 40 percent of making the playoffs, edging out the Rangers (24 percent), Islanders (21 percent), Blue Jackets (17 percent) and Red Wings (five percent). The Canadiens are in the driver’s seat.
The reason: their growing young core is starting to realize its potential. Montreal’s best players have been on fire since the 4 Nations break. The tale of the tape speaks for itself.
Nick Suzuki hasn’t just been the best player in Montreal, he’s arguably been one of the best in the entire league since the break. His average Game Score of 2.03 leads all forwards thanks to a league-leading 18 points in 11 games, along with a 55 percent xG rate and 75 percent of actual goals. He’s grown into a no-doubt top-line center (with a fantastic contract as a result of that growth, I should add).
Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovský have been along for the ride scoring at a point-per-game rate. Caufield’s seven goals ranks near the top of the league while Slafkovský looks like he’s back on track after a slow start. While Caufield’s and Slafkovský’s five-on-five numbers are a little muted compared to Suzuki’s, the duo has still helped Montreal win tough minutes which is a fantastic sign for the future. The top line has been lights-out.
In net, Sam Montembeault is showing exactly why he made Team Canada with a .920 save percentage and a league-leading 12.1 goals saved above expected during this stretch. Good goaltending goes a long way and he’s been great.
Last, but certainly not least, is the player who’s helped unlock everything for the Habs: Lane Hutson. He’s turning into an elite defenseman before our very eyes and has been a nightly sensation in Montreal. He has 12 points in 11 games since the break and has earned 63 percent of expected goals and 73 percent of actual goals. That’s led to an average Game Score of 1.91 which ranks third among defensemen. For the season, his plus-6.9 Net Rating leads all rookie skaters, up 2.5 goals on Macklin Celebrini.
What usually separates the league’s contenders from the pretenders is the core. Find a good team and you’ll almost always find a good core leading the way. It’s how a team’s core develops that usually serves as a signal as to where a rebuilding team is heading, and right now there’s a strong signal coming from Montreal’s top players. Sure, there’s a bit of PDO magic happening right now, but even by xG Hutson has been dominant and the top line is winning tough minutes.
The Canadiens are in the process of arriving. The work to make the playoffs is not finished yet, but even if they ultimately fall short, it’s hard not to view this season as anything but a major success. It looks like a stepping stone to a very bright tomorrow, one that could come as early as this April.
Either way, the final destination isn’t just a playoff spot this year anyway — it’s consistent contention. With the way this core has grown this season, and especially over the last month, reaching that destination feels like only a matter of time.
16 stats
1. Are Montreal’s special teams due for regression?
One worry that I have with Montreal over the final 15 games is whether its special teams can stay this special.
Since the 4 Nations break, the Canadiens have the eighth-best power play (11.3 goals per 60) and sixth-best penalty kill (5.5 goals against per 60), but they’re not getting there in a sustainable way. During the same stretch, Montreal has the seventh worst expected goals-for rate on the power play (7.3 per 60), and the eighth worst expected goals-against rate on the penalty kill (10.0 per 60).
Good teams learn how to create their own luck and the Canadiens are learning in real time how to be a good team. It helps to have elite finishing talent on the power play and a goalie playing well for the penalty kill. All that matters is what happens on the scoreboard and with 15 games left and a healthy lead on ninth, the Canadiens have a great shot at the postseason. But with how the team has earned their results, there is a chance of that drying up. If it does, it might be what costs them the playoffs.
2. Jones struggling in Florida
There’s often an acclimation period when it comes to newly acquired players and the Panthers better hope that’s all that’s going on with Seth Jones.
The star defender had his share of struggles in Chicago, but the thinking was that he’d put it behind him on a contender and give a jolt to Florida’s offense. Through seven games the early returns are not great, with a team-worst 39 percent of expected goals while getting outscored 6-1. Even with Aaron Ekblad out, Jones’ minutes in Florida have actually been easier than they were in Chicago.
I believe in Jones and think he will turn it around, but it’s hard not to be a little concerned with his start here. So far he’s been a detriment on a team that made Ben Chiarot look good — and that’s saying something.
3. Carlo thriving in Toronto
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Brandon Carlo has a 62 percent xG rate with the Leafs and more importantly, has been on for just 1.51 expected goals against per 60. While the rest of the team has struggled since the deadline, the Carlo-Morgan Rielly pair looks like an immediate revelation.
After struggling this year in Boston without Hampus Lindholm, Carlo looks like his vintage self. Though it sure helps that his workload has been lessened. With Toronto, the average Offensive Rating of his opponents has been 1.67, down from 1.95 with Boston. It’s a seemingly small drop, but it does make a difference.
Auston Matthews is performing below his incredibly high standards this season. (Mike Carlson / Getty Images)
4. Matthews’ high standards
It’s no secret that Auston Matthews is not having his best season. What’s interesting is how harshly people are judging said season with some exaggerated comparisons to a third-line center. I suppose it’s understandable when a player has set the bar as high as Matthews has, but it is funny that under the hood the only number that’s really changed is how many pucks he’s personally shot into the net.
Compared to last season Matthews has a similar 55 percent xG rate, with a similar relative impact of 0.5 per 60. The Leafs have allowed a similar amount of goals against and he’s firing the same amount of chances on net (1.77 xG per 60). His goals percentage would be above 60 percent, as usual, if only the pucks he shot at the net went in as often as usual. Over the last three seasons that rate is 2.16 per 60. This year that’s dropped to 1.46.
There’s no question the drop is a big deal (though he has made up for some of it with stronger playmaking), especially for a player who makes his hay being the league’s best goal scorer. But if this is Matthews’ floor — a 41-goal and 95-point pace with elite five-on-five impacts in some of the league’s toughest minutes — it’s a damn high floor. For as poor as he’s looked relative to his usual standards, his plus-14.1 Net Rating still ranks 17th in the league.
Matthews’ worst is still almost anyone else’s best.
5. Taylor Hall, the forgotten piece of the Rantanen saga
Something that’s been sometimes forgotten with Carolina’s Mikko Rantanen saga is that the Hurricanes did get Taylor Hall in the deal. GM Eric Tulsky mentioned that in his interview with Pierre LeBrun and, naturally, the numbers bear it out.
With the Hurricanes, Hall has scored a solid 1.88 points-per-60 at five-on-five and has shown a serious resurgence in his play-driving ability. The Hurricanes have earned 59 percent of expected goals and have outscored teams 12-5 in his minutes. His presence has made the second line look a lot more formidable of late with Hall finding some instant chemistry with Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
Hall is obviously not the impact player that Rantanen or Necas is, but he’s no scrub either. The Hurricanes have looked really good of late and he’s been a big reason why.
6. Jankowski and Glass: deadline steals
The deals for Mark Jankowski and Cody Glass were deadline day afterthoughts at the time, two depth moves that didn’t seem to warrant much second thought. Two weeks later they look like the shrewdest moves of the day.
The key to both: buy low on bad PDO.
In Nashville, Jankowski was on for 62 percent of expected goals, but just 46 percent of goals. In Pittsburgh, Glass was on for 56 percent of expected goals, but just 41 percent of goals. It’s no shock that two savvy organizations trusted the former numbers with the hopes of a turnaround and that’s exactly what they’ve received right out of the gate.
Both Jankowski and Glass seem to have been reinvigorated by their new locales and look like quality depth additions for the playoffs, ready to crush sheltered minutes.
7. Is Allen stealing the Devils starting job?
The Devils made a big splash last summer by acquiring Jacob Markstrom. Lucky for them, they also acquired an insurance policy at last year’s deadline: Jake Allen.
Since returning from injury Markstrom has really struggled between the pipes, posting an .833 save percentage while allowing 6.5 goals above expected in just five games. That’s the third-worst mark in the league. Allen, on the other hand, has a .926 and has saved 5.8 goals above expected in five games since the 4 Nations break. With that in mind, it’s no wonder that the two have alternated starts over the last two weeks. With the way both goalies are playing right now, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Allen take over for a bit either. For now, he’s the better option.
8. Sorry for the jinx, Columbus
Last week I wrote some glowing things about the Blue Jackets who, for the first time all season, looked more likely than not to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, that might’ve been a top signal for a team that’s been riding high on percentages for a lot of the year.
Since the article, the Blue Jackets have lost three straight and have now lost five of six. Their playoff chances have dropped from a high of 62.5 percent on March 10 to 16.7 percent now. My bad! (And sorry in advance to any Canadiens fans after all the nice stuff I said to start this article).
For the second straight season, Brock Faber has struggled in the season’s second half. (Bob Frid / Imagn Images)
9. Faber’s second-half struggles
For the second straight season, Brock Faber has disappeared in the new year. Last season that was due to Faber dealing with injury, though I’m not quite sure what the excuse this year. Either way, the drop in his numbers has been alarming.
From the start of the season to Dec. 31, Faber was a rock. He earned 51.5 percent of expected goals and 58 percent of actual goals for the Wild — all while playing the toughest minutes on the team. Since then, in the same minutes, Faber’s xG percentage has dropped to 44 percent and his goals percentage has dropped to 35 percent. What’s going on here?
10. Ice-cold Bedard
If you haven’t heard much of the Chicago phenom’s name lately (outside of back-to-back game misconducts), it’s because Connor Bedard hasn’t done much to warrant it. Coming out of the 4 Nations break Bedard has been ice-cold with just two goals and four points in 13 games. Perhaps more troubling is that the same defensive issues that plagued him in his rookie season continue to be a problem.
It’s obvious that Bedard needs help, but there are other forwards on the team — Teuvo Teräväinen and Ryan Donato — who aren’t struggling to the same degree. Why can’t Bedard do the same?
Unless he takes a big jump next season, it’s starting to look like the massive pre-draft hype surrounding Bedard will be very difficult to live up to. His current projected Net Rating peak sits around plus-12 which is right in line with other top-30 forwards. In order to get to franchise-player range, he needs to start showing a lot more — even on a bad team.
11. Dallas without Heiskanen against Colorado
Earlier this week, Dallas coach Pete DeBoer said there’s a very real chance the Stars may be without Miro Heiskanen for the first round. That’s really bad news considering the team is on a collision course to play the Avalanche in the first round.
With Heiskanen, the Stars would be 60 percent favorites over the Avalanche (and that’s with Tyler Seguin back, which also looks dicey). Without Heiskanen, they’d still be favorites at 53 percent, but the margin for error shrinks significantly. Dallas can still beat Colorado without Heiskanen, but his absence is a big deal.
12. Necas’ fit with Colorado
We mentioned Hall fitting well with Carolina earlier and it’s important to mention the same for Martin Necas. I’ve never been a big Necas believer, but it’s clear his speed and style are perfect for Colorado in ways that simply weren’t possible in Carolina.
Necas is actually scoring less efficiently in Colorado at five-on-five (1.72 points per 60 compared to 2.44 with Carolina), but he’s doing a lot more outside of his production. It helps to be on the ice with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar so often, but it’s still noteworthy that Necas was a 48 percent xG player on Carolina (!) but has jumped to 66 percent with the Avalanche.
Also of note are the chances he himself is creating. According to data tracked by Corey Sznajder, Necas has contributed to 15.6 scoring chances per 60 — on par with Jack Hughes as one of the best marks in the league. It’s also way up from his 10.2 in Carolina this year and 10.0 last year. He’s a perfect complement next to MacKinnon.
13. The end of the electric Walman — Bouchard pair
Mattias Ekholm made his return to the lineup on Tuesday night and excelled with a Game Score of 5.62, showing why he and Evan Bouchard are one of the league’s best pairs. But his return marked the end of a fascinating duo: Bouchard and newcomer Jake Walman.
In theory, that pair sounds like a coach’s nightmare: two pure puck-movers with a flair for some real bonehead moments. In practice, however, they were rocket fuel igniting Edmonton’s attack at the top of the lineup.
Walman and Bouchard only played 52 minutes together over Walman’s first five games with the team, but in that time the Oilers earned 61 percent of expected goals while outscoring opponents 3-1. And yes, they did that playing the team’s tougher minutes too.
The pair may have been short-lived, but it’s nice to know the Oilers have that in their back pocket when they need offense. Walman looks like a quality pick-up.
After struggling to start the season, Elias Pettersson has been performing like himself again. (Bob Frid / Imagn Images)
14. Is Elias Pettersson back?
Over the last five games, Elias Pettersson has had three goals and seven points and 63 percent of expected goals, good for an average Game Score of 1.92. Yeah, he looks like he’s back.
15. Big game in St. Louis
Thursday night’s game between the Blues and Canucks is huge. The game carries massive playoff implications with those two teams being the most likely candidates for the final playoff spot in the West.
Going into the game, my model gives the edge to Vancouver thanks to the team’s previous track record and current edge in points percentage (.551 to St. Louis’ .543). Given how the team has looked most of the season, it’s perhaps too bullish on the Canucks, but a healthy Quinn Hughes and resurgent Elias Pettersson help.
In the same vein, it’s perhaps too bearish on the Blues, who have been a juggernaut of late leading all teams in goals percentage (63.9 percent) and expected goals percentage (59.5 percent) since the 4 Nations break. They’ve been really good under new coach Jim Montgomery and that’s probably not taken into account enough.
Seeing the Blues take the Canucks over would not be a shock in the slightest, and that all starts with a win on home ice. The Blues enter the game with a 24 percent chance of making the playoffs to Vancouver’s 55 percent. Here’s what those odds become depending on what happens in the matchup.
Blues regulation win
Blues’ odds: 36 percent
Canucks’ odds: 40 percent
Blues overtime win
Blues’ odds: 31 percent
Canucks’ odds: 50 percent
Canucks overtime win
Blues’ odds: 19 percent
Canucks’ odds: 64 percent
Canucks regulation win
Blues’ odds: 13 percent
Canucks’ odds: 69 percent
That’s 29 percentage points of leverage on the line for the Canucks and 23 for the Blues. Buckle up.
16. Make a call!
Earlier this week, Jason Gregor noted that the league has seen a massive drop in power-play opportunities this year, something I wanted to echo here. I’ve long been an advocate of just calling the damn rulebook and it feels like this year we’ve reached a new low. Literally, with just 2.72 power play opportunities per game. That’s a 10 percent drop from last year’s 3.02 — an average that had been steady since 2014-15.
While a league-wide jump in efficiency has lessened the impact on lost goals, I do worry about the effect a looser whistle might have on the game at five-on-five. On a per-60 basis, shots are down from 29.0 last year to 27.2 this year at five-on-five while goals are down from 2.52 last year to 2.40 this season. Not ideal.
— Data via Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stat Cards, All Three Zones and Hockey-Reference
(Top photo: Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)
.