Los Angeles Dodgers’ Blake Snell waves to fans during a baseball spring training workout, Thursday, … [+] Feb. 13, 2025, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ projected 2025 starting rotation almost defies description. Over there is rehabbing ace Shohei Ohtani, who looks to resume his career as a two-way force sometime this season. There’s Roki Sasaki, the prize of this winter’s free agent class, overseas division. There’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto, his 2023-24 counterpart. There’s Tyler Glasnow, who has regularly been dominant in short to intermediate stints, but has never pitched enough innings to qualify for an ERA title. That’s exactly two fewer times than Blake Snell, who also signed on with Goliath this offseason – and the lefty has copped Cy Young awards both times he has done so.
On paper, this group appears to be untouchable. But projections are one thing, actual performance is another. The Dodgers’ leading winner, Gavin Stone only notched 11 victories last season. Only two L.A. starters, Stone and Glasnow, exceeded the princely sum of 100 innings pitched, with the former leading with 140 1/3. Snell only accumulated 104 innings as a Giant. The Dodgers looked at the big picture, decided that starting pitching was their biggest need, and used their ample resources to go out and catch the two biggest fish on the market.
In recent weeks in this space, I have unrolled my annual Best Pitches series, culminating in my Starting Pitcher Grade-Point Averages piece. In the process, letter grades for every qualifying pitch in the arsenals of starting pitchers with 135 or more innings pitch were assigned based on their bat-missing and contact management performance relative to the league. As a supplement, reviews of the repertoires of Paul Skenes, Glasnow and now Snell have been added.
Snell had three qualifying pitches in 2024, his changeup, curve and four-seam fastball. We’ll tackle the first and last of those offerings quickly.
Both his change and four-seamer received “A” grades. Snell threw his changeup 17.5% of the time. It posted a pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Score of 85, which is about average for that pitch type. However, it was an electric swing-and-miss pitch, with a 24.5% whiff rate, which would have ranked 4th among pitchers with 135 or more innings pitched. It graded out almost identically to Tarik Skubal’s “A” changeup (84 Adjusted Contact Score, 25.9% whiff rate).
Snell’s fastball has been a laggard compared to his offspeed pitches in previous years, but it took a nice step forward in 2024. He threw it a healthy 46.3% of the time. While its 9.4% pitch-specific whiff rate was in the league average range, it was an exceptional contact management offering. Its 84 Adjusted Contact Score would have ranked 3rd among the 73 qualifiers, only fractionally out of 1st place. It must be emphasized that the four-seamer was, as usual, the worst contact management pitch in the game last season, with a 117.3 Adjusted Contact Score. His four-seamer graded out almost identically to Luis Severino’s (83, 9.5%).
But those were two weakest of Snell’s three qualifying pitches last season. Snell’s curve was so good that it would have earned an “A++” grade, too high to be placed normally into my Grade-Point Average calculation. It was way above average both in terms of contact management (66 Adjusted Contact Score, well over a standard deviation better than average) and especially bat-missing (22.5%, higher than all 38 qualifiers, almost THREE standard deviations higher) performance. No qualifier threw a curve as good as Snell’s – Framber Valdez (62, 17.8%) came the closest, earning an “A+”.
Snell’s curve is thrown quite hard (81.1 mph), but its spin (2508 rpm) and horizontal (6.3 in.) and vertical (4.4 in.) movement all register in the league average range. It plays up because of its interaction with the remainder of his high-octane repertoire.
Dump Snell’s three qualifying pitches into the GPA formula, and he checks in at 4.14, fractionally behind two other non-qualifiers for the ERA title, Hunter Greene (4.19) and Garrett Crochet (4.15). Snell’s performance is arguably more impressive for a couple of reasons – one, the excellence of his curve is understated for the reason previously stated, and two, Snell’s grade is based on three qualifying pitches, Greene and Crochet’s upon two. Zack Wheeler (4.06) owned the highest GPA of any 2024 ERA qualifier – he, like Snell, threw three “A” grade pitches or better.
Sure, the Dodgers are assuming a great deal of risk in extending a five-year, $182 million contract (with significant deferrals), running through his age 36 season, to Snell, especially given his spotty health history. While the quantity of work to be delivered is in question, the quality likely will be impeccable. On a per inning basis, there aren’t many pitchers in the lefty’s league. Coming into 2024 one could at least point to a potentially vulnerable four-seamer – while the contact management advances of that pitch might regress a bit, it appears that he might now be relatively bullet-proof.
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