Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of March 7th, 2025 – Inside the Hall

We are officially in the thick of it with just nine days until Selection Sunday. Several smaller conference tournaments are underway, and the first five automatic bids will be handed out over the weekend. The major conferences wrap up league play over the next few days, including multiple matchups between bubble teams that may well serve as de facto elimination games.

Since the last update, things have been relatively static at the top of the bracket with Auburn, Duke and Houston still clinging to one seeds. Three SEC teams are battling it out for the final top seed and thanks to this week’s victory at Alabama, Florida has taken that spot for now. The Gators now boast road wins at Auburn and Alabama, a 16-4 mark in Q1/Q2 contests and impressive rankings in the predictive and result-based metrics. Alabama and Tennesse are still alive for one seeds though, with the Tide traveling to Auburn on Saturday and the Vols hosting South Carolina. Obviously, one of those can move the needle far more than the other.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351

The Bracket

The projections below are based on all games played through March 6th, 2025. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and first four out.

ATLANTA (SOUTH)		NEWARK (EAST)
Lexington – March 20/22		Raleigh – March 21/23
1) Auburn		1) Duke
16) Bucknell / SE Missouri St.		16) Quinnipiac / Southern
8) Kansas		8) Mississippi St.
9) New Mexico		9) Creighton
Denver – March 20/22		Seattle – March 21/23
5) Maryland		5) Michigan
12) Drake		12) Liberty
4) Iowa St.		4) Arizona
13) Yale		13) Lipscomb
Denver – March 20/22		Milwaukee – March 21/23
6) Marquette		6) UCLA
11) San Diego St.		11) Arkansas
3) Texas A&M		3) Kentucky
14) Utah Valley		14) Chattanooga
Cleveland – March 21/23		Lexington – March 20/22
7) Louisville		7) BYU
10) Baylor		10) VCU
2) Michigan St.		2) Alabama
15) C. Connecticut St.		15) Bryant
SAN FRANCISCO (WEST)		INDIANAPOLIS (MIDWEST)
Raleigh – March 21/23		Wichita – March 20/22
1) Florida		1) Houston
16) Omaha		16) Norfolk St.
8) Connecticut		8) Gonzaga
9) West Virginia		9) Vanderbilt
Providence – March 20/22		Seattle – March 21/23
5) Saint Mary’s		5) Oregon
12) Ohio St. / Oklahoma		12) McNeese
4) Purdue		4) Clemson
13) High Point		13) Akron
Wichita – March 20/22		Milwaukee – March 21/23
6) Missouri		6) Ole Miss
11) UC San Diego		11) Indiana / Xavier
3) Texas Tech		3) Wisconsin
14) South Alabama		14) Northern Colorado
Providence – March 20/22		Cleveland – March 21/23
7) Illinois		7) Memphis
10) Utah St.		10) Georgia
2) St. John’s		2) Tennessee
15) Robert Morris		15) Towson

Last Four In:

Oklahoma – This is a good time to remind everyone that the committee at least says that they do not look at conference record. That would be good news for the Sooners, who are just 5-12 in SEC play but went 13-0 in the non-con with victories against Arizona, Louisville and Michigan on neutral courts. As a result, the resume metrics are solid, but OU does have a Q3 loss and a 11-12 mark in non-Q4 games. The Sooners also have just one true road win heading into Saturday’s trip to Texas, which is shaping up to be a huge one for both teams.

Ohio State – A double-OT victory against Nebraska kept the Buckeyes in the field for now. They are up to four games over .500 at 17-13, but it’s worth noting they are just 11-13 in non-Q4 contests. A neutral court victory against Kentucky and a road win at Purdue carry a lot of weight and the predictive metrics are all inside the top 40. The result-based metrics are lagging behind though, which means OSU is likely in trouble if they lose at Indiana on Saturday.

Indiana – The Hoosiers could have given themselves some breathing room with a win at Oregon on Tuesday, but the Ducks scored the final 10 points of the game and pushed IU a couple spots down the seed list. They now sit at just 4-12 in Q1 contests, but they have no losses outside of the top quadrant. The Hoosiers have four wins in each of the top two quadrants and while some blowout losses earlier in the season hurt the predictive metrics, their result-based metrics average out in the low 40s, which tend to hold more weight in the selection process. A win against OSU on Saturday would give the Hoosiers a sweep of the Buckeyes and keep them in the field, but a loss would likely push them to the wrong side of the cutline.

Xavier – The Musketeers feel a lot like UNC (more on them in a minute), as they are now just 1-9 in Q1 contests with the lone win coming at Marquette. They have only one loss outside of Q1 and are 13-10 in non-Q4 games, including home wins against UConn and Creighton. Xavier needs to take care of business at home against Providence before facing Marquette or Connecticut in the 4-5 game of the Big East tournament.

First Four Out:

Boise State – A pair of Q3 losses and result-based metrics that all sit outside the Top 50 aren’t helping matters for the Broncos, but non-conference wins against Saint Mary’s and Clemson have aged extremely well. Boise has also knocked off Utah State and New Mexico at home, and the Broncos will close out the season by hosting a surging Colorado State squad on Friday.

North Carolina – The good news is that the Tar Heels have just one loss outside of Q1. The bad news is they are 1-10 in Q1 games and have only one victory against my projected field to go with a Q3 loss. The predictive metrics are strong relative to other bubble teams, but at this point Saturday’s season finale against Duke feels like a must-win.

Nebraska – Tuesday’s OT loss in Columbus was the Huskers’ fourth straight defeat. Nebraska is 5-10 in Q1 with road wins at Oregon and Creighton and home victories against Illinois and UCLA. However, they have a pair of Q3 losses and are 11-13 in non-Q4 games. Just one of the team sheet metrics ranks inside the Top 50, which is typically a bad sign. Nebraska cannot afford to lose at home to Iowa on Sunday.

Texas – This week’s overtime win at Mississippi State kept the Longhorns in the mix, but they are still on the outside looking in for now. Five Q1 wins and solid predictive metrics make the Longhorns a viable candidate, but they played a weak non-conference schedule and are just 10-13 in non-Q4 games. The result-based metrics aren’t great either, which makes Saturday’s game against Oklahoma critical.

Conference Breakdown:

SEC (13): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten (10): Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

Big 12 (8): Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Big East (5): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, Xavier

ACC (3): Clemson, Duke, Louisville

Mountain West (3): New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

American: Memphis

Atlantic 10: VCU

America East: Bryant

Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb

Big Sky: Northern Colorado

Big South: High Point

Big West: UC San Diego

Colonial: Towson

Conference USA: Liberty

Horizon: Robert Morris

Ivy: Yale

MAAC: Quinnipiac

MAC: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Missouri Valley: Drake

Northeast: Central Connecticut State

Ohio Valley: SE Missouri State

Patriot: Bucknell

Southern: Chattanooga

Southland: McNeese

SWAC: Southern

Summit: Omaha

Sun Belt: South Alabama

WAC: Utah Valley

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

Category: Bracketology

Filed to: 2024-2025 Bracketology