DFS Fantasy Golf Cheat Sheet: Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.

Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1M Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]

The Field

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a PGA “signature event” once again for 2025, featuring a limited field of 72 golfers (no cut) with a 20 million prize purse up for grabs (3.6M to first). With Xander Schauffele making his return from injury, nine of the world’s top 10 golfers will be in attendance, with 2022 and 2024 winner Scottie Scheffler (and world No. 1) headlining. Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg are all in attendance as well.

This will be the second season that this tournament is played as a no-cut event, although it used to have reduced fields of 120 players, so the change isn’t that drastic. Winners at the API tend to be elite, as four of the last six winners of this event have all won major championships at some point in their careers. International players have also won this event in five of the past nine seasons.

Despite the event only featuring 72 players, it does have a cutline with only the top 50 players and ties — and anyone within 10 shots of the lead — qualifying for the final 36 holes. This makes it a little more interesting for DFS purposes as most players will likely look to avoid the bottom tier of players to (hopefully) get 6/6 through the weekend.

The Course

Bay Hill—Orlando, FL.

Par 72, 7,466 yards

Bay Hill has hosted this event since its inception but has undergone major renovations at points during the last decade. The course used to play as a par 70 between 2007 and 2009 but reverted back to a par 72 in 2010 and remains that way today. After 2014, fairways were widened in spots, with some overgrown rough and trees removed, making driving conditions a touch easier for the players on certain holes. New Bermuda greens were also added.

Lately, Bay Hill has been set up to play as one of the toughest on the PGA TOUR, with the rough typically playing to “major championship” caliber and the wind providing extra defense. The venue played as the hardest course on the PGA TOUR in 2020 — even compared to the major championship venues — and yielded just a 74.106 scoring average. In two of the last five seasons, the winning score has failed to exceed 5-under par and in 2023 the winner posted 9-under.

As mentioned above, Bay Hill features Bermuda greens and, as a traditional par 72, also features four par 5s, none of which play longer than 570 yards. As such, these holes will still yield a lot of birdies or better, and most of the past winners here have tended to dominate these holes during the week. With wider fairways, strokes gained off the tee stats don’t tend to matter as much as you would think they would on a longer course. Top finishers at Bay Hill tend to gain far more on approach than any other category, and with plenty of tough approaches into water-protected greens, it’s easy to see why. The 2022 winner, Scottie Scheffler, actually lost strokes off the tee but led the field in approach stats and the 2023 winner, Kurt Kitayama, only gained 0.4 strokes OTT (but gained 7.7 strokes around the green + putting).

What sets Bay Hill apart from some of the other Florida courses is the abundance of longer approaches. Thanks to some doglegs and forced layup holes, players tend to see quite a few longer approach shots (>200 yards or more), so long iron proximity is another stat to focus on outside of the regular strokes gained categories.

The venue has been a lightning rod for major championship-quality players of late, with five of the past seven winners at Bay Hill now in possession of a major win. And maybe that stat shouldn’t come as a huge shock. This is a venue that requires a good all-around game, good mental composure and the ability to hit precision approaches on nearly every hole — just to avoid your ball meeting an untimely watery grave.

While Bay Hill is nowhere near a links venue, the ability to handle tougher, open-like conditions can certainly be seen in the past winner list here with Open champions like Rory McIlroy and Francesco Molinari on the list. Additionally, before his win at Bay Hill, Kitayama’s best finish on the PGA was a second-place finish at the Scottish Open, played at the Renaissance Club, a pure links venue over in Scotland. Players with good recent form and good results on those same sorts of stops can certainly be given extra attention this week.

2025 Weather Outlook: The weather at Bay Hill can be a little volatile and heavier winds have affected the tournament before. Wednesday has some rain and heavy winds in the forecast and some of the poor weather could carry over to Thursday where the highs are only expected to reach 65-70F and gusts could hit 20 MPH in spots. The wind may die down as the day goes on so “potentially” the later starters may grab a slight advantage. The wind does die down a little on Friday, which has highs reaching 75F. Sunday could see a lot more carnage with heavier gusts potentially reaching 20-25 MPH. It’s something to keep an eye on for daily DFS lineups as early starters on the final day could make some big moves if they go off in calmer conditions. Overall, scoring looks like it could be much tougher this season than last, where the winner got in at 15-under par.

Last Five Winners

2024 – Scottie Scheffler -15 (over Wyndham Clark -10)

2023 — Kurt Kitayama -9 (over Rory McIlroy and Harris English -8)

2022 — Scottie Scheffler -5 (over three different players -4)

2021 — Bryson DeChambeau -11 (over Lee Westwood -10)

2020 — Tyrrell Hatton -4 (over Marc Leishman -3)

Winning Trends

• Nine of the past 10 winners of this event had recorded a T-17 or better finish at Bay Hill in a previous season before winning (except Kitayama ‘23).
• Twelve of the past 14 winners of this event had all played the API at Bay Hill the year prior and made the cut (exception: Scheffler 2022, Kitayama 2023).
• Five of the past nine winners have been international players.

Winners Statistics

2024 Winner: Scottie Scheffler (15-under par)

2024 lead-in form (T10-T3-T6-T17-T6)

SG: OTT—+5.0

SG: APP—+3.3

SG: TTG—+12.1

SG: ATG—+3.8

SG: PUTT—+4.3

• Winners and top finishers at Bay Hill gain more strokes on approach/putting than any other category (almost equal distribution).
• 2022 winner Scottie Scheffler gained the most strokes on approach of any of the past seven winners but also had a great week on the greens, gaining 4.3 strokes.
• 2023 winner Kurt Kitayama gained 3.3 strokes on approach but was better than Scheffler ATG (+2.1 strokes) and gained 5.6 strokes putting.
• Despite Bay Hill being long and holding four par 5s, we can’t describe it as a bombers course, as many of the longer holes still require players to place the ball off the tee and stress long iron approaches (Scheffler in 2022 and Kitayama in 2023 gained less than 1.0 strokes OTT).
• Shorter hitters like Tyrrell Hatton and Francesco Molinari have both found wins at this venue recently, and in 2022, Chris Kirk, Hatton and Billy Horschel all finished inside the top five.
• Approaches from >200 yards are the most common of any at this venue; GIR percentages are quite a bit lower compared to the PGA TOUR average; and driving accuracy tends to be slightly higher than average.
• Overall, more of a pure ball-strikers course than a bomber’s paradise, and still a venue where good iron play, generally, must include good putting for a big week.

Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.

Shane Lowry +4500 and $8,200

Comparables:

Taylor Pendrith +5000 and $7,900

Comparables:

HORSES FOR COURSES

1. Scottie Scheffler ($12,000; best finishes: win-2024 and 2022): Scheffler has had a ridiculous run at this venue, landing two wins and a T-3 finish at Bay Hill over the past three seasons. A target golf monster, this entire Feb-March swing from Phoenix to Florida has been his realm and he leads the field in strokes gained total stats at this venue, despite only playing this event in four of the past five seasons.

2. Rory McIlroy ($10,800; best finishes: win-2018, T2-2023): There’s something about Bay Hill that suits Rory’s eye, as the Northern Irishman comes into this year’s version flashing finishes of T-2, T-5 and a victory at this venue over the past seven seasons. He’s yet to miss the cut at Bay Hill over his last nine starts and has finished T-13 or better at Bay Hill in six of the past seven seasons.

3. Matt Fitzpatrick ($7,700; best finishes: 2nd-2019, T9-2020, and 2022): Fitzpatrick has been close to grabbing a win multiple times at this venue. The Englishman is a terrific Bermuda putter and has been extremely comfortable playing around this more precision-based venue. His MC last season at Bay Hill was his first here in over five years but he is someone who can pop here anytime given his ability with the flatstick.

4. Sungjae Im ($8,900; best finishes: T3-2020 + 2019): Im has been a beast on the Florida swing for much of his career. He picked up a win at another tough Florida venue in PGA National back in 2020 and has finished top-five at Bay Hill twice already in five career starts. He’s in a slump but if any course can bring him out of it, it’s Bay Hill, which has been one of his best tracks on the circuit.

5. Chris Kirk ($6,100; best finishes: T5-2022 + T8-2021): Kirk ranks ninth in strokes gained total stats over the last six seasons at Bay Hill, posting top-10 finishes at this event in two of the past four seasons. He hasn’t had the greatest start to the season but did gain 3.5 strokes on approach at PGA National and makes sense for stars and scrubs GPP builds this week in DFS.

Cash Games: Scheffler, the king of Bay Hill

There are lots of quality names in this field available under 8k for DFS, so you should try not to overthink this one. Scheffler ($12,000) is expensive but you can use players like Michael Kim ($7,600) and Si Woo Kim ($7,400) to help smooth out your overall salary and build quality lineups. In the 8k range, I also think Sepp Straka ($8,100) is worthy of a callout. The Austrian continues to play extremely high-level golf and gain strokes in a lot of different areas. He’s someone else you could look to use to help build out cash lineups starting with one or more of the elite names.

Tournaments: Time to take Thomas?

I think it’s fairly reasonable to consider going overweight on Justin Thomas ($9,400) this week, who I don’t expect will be overly popular. He’s a multiple-time winner in Florida (Sawgrass and PGA National) and had his best career finish at this venue last season with a T-12. The American is gaining big on approach, which is great for these Florida venues and while his putter ebbs and flows, he did gain over a 1.0 stroke putter in his last two starts on Bermuda (Amex and Sentry). Below him, I also think it’s reasonable to consider this week a good spot for a Min Woo Lee ($7,500 – see below) breakout, and I also like the price on Sam Stevens ($6,900) who finally took a rest last week. For extreme builds, I think Chris Kirk (who gained over 3.0 strokes on approach last week) makes sense to target given his great course history and cheap $6,100 salary.

Recent Form

1. Michael Kim ($7,600, T6-T11-T11) – Kim gained strokes across all major categories for the fourth event in a row. He’s playing amazingly consistent golf right now and could benefit from a tougher setup.

2. Russell Henley ($8,800, T6-T39-T5) – Henley ranks 10th in SG: ATG and first in SG: PUTT over the last 24 rounds. He’s another player who could benefit from tougher conditions this week given his remarkable short game.

3. Maverick McNealy ($8,700, T2-T9-T40) – McNealy nearly won for the second time in four months in his last start where he closed with a 64 on the tough Torrey Pines. He’s never finished inside the top 40 at Bay Hill.

4. Daniel Berger ($8,500, T25-T12-T2) – Berger got himself in contention again last week but faded on the weekend. He’s playing great golf, though, and has plenty of experience on these Florida setups.

5. Scottie Scheffler ($12,000, T3-T25-T9) – Don’t look now but Scheffler is starting to heat up. He grabbed a T-3 in his last start at Torrey Pines and gained 7.5 strokes tee to green in the process. His record at Bay Hill suggests we may see even better stats from him this week.

MY PICK: Tommy Fleetwood ($9,100)

Just given the conditions we have in play this week, it’s hard to be bearish on Tommy Fleetwood’s chances. We’re still waiting to see his around-the-green game come to life but his ball-striking this year has been fantastic. He’s gained 4.4 and 5.2 strokes on approach in his last two starts and had the putter firing at the Genesis, where he finished T-5 and gained 2.6 strokes for the week.

Torrey Pines is likely just a touch too long for Tommy but the more target-oriented courses on this Florida swing have been much more up his alley. He’s finished top five at one time or another at each of Sawgrass, PGA National, Copperhead and Bay Hill, where he landed a T-3 back in 2019. A perennial contender at the US Open and a lover of tougher conditions, the wind in the forecast this week and potential heavy gusts on Sunday should benefit him more than most in the field.

Either way, at $9,100, this seems like a good spot to deploy him in core lineups as either a second man into stars and scrubs lineups or in balanced attacks where you’re potentially fading one of the top names. At +3000 or better on DraftKings Sportsbook, I can’t say I hate him as an outright bet, although he’s likely a better placing bet with a top 5 (+600)/top 20 (+100) ladder bet the most appealing option.

MY SLEEPER: Min Woo Lee ($7,500)

Min Woo Lee is another international player who I expect could see some big weeks during this Florida swing. He started slowly at the Cognizant Classic but grinded back nicely, throwing together three solid rounds in a row to finish T-11. Lee gained strokes across all the major categories last week and is, in general, a tremendous putter and scrambler who comes in ranked fifth in around-the-green stats on the season.

While his irons can be inconsistent, he gained 1.1 strokes on approach last week at PGA National and showcased better form at Pebble Beach last month in that area, gaining 3.8 strokes that week on approach. While his best finish in three tries at Bay Hill remains a T-44 from last season, he’s finished T-9 at Sawgrass (on debut) and T-2 and T-11 (last week) at PGA National, suggesting these Florida courses may in fact be a great spot to target him.

A great young player who remains plenty cheap and has the sort of game that flourishes in tougher conditions (T-5 and T-21 at the last two US Opens) I think this is a good time to use him as a core value for DFS. He’s shown better consistency this season and his course history may keep his ownership lower in bigger field GPPs.

For betting, the +240 (top 20) and +600 (top 10) odds make him an excellent player to ladder this week as well on DraftKings Sportsbook.