Here’s MMAmania.com’s UFC Vegas 105 betting odds ‘Weekend Lock’ … what’s yours?

UFC Vegas 105 is less than 24 hours away …

It all goes down this weekend (Sat., April 5, 2025) from inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, No. 8-ranked Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight contender, Josh Emmett, steps back into the Octagon against surging United Kingdom star, Lerone Murphy.

We’ve started a new series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we feel could slap in Sin City when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Vegas 105 betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Vegas 105 odds here).

Just a little bit of housekeeping before we move forward. Unfortunately, all great things must come to an end, and I suffered the first loss in this series last weekend at UFC Mexico City when I chose Drew Dober to defeat Manuel Torres. I got too cocky and picked an underdog in a 50/50 fight (whoopsies). And I was going to do it again (Davey Grant) this weekend; however, his bout against Daniel Santos was scrapped during official weigh-ins earlier this afternoon (details here) so we need to pivot.

We’re 3-1 so far, so let’s keep keeping on below …

Smack dab in the middle of UFC Vegas 105’s lineup is a battle between two Octagon veterans, Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert. And, more than likely, the Middleweight showdown is headed for the judges scorecards, which is our re-worked “Weekend Lock” (at -135).

First, Tavares hasn’t scored a finish inside the Octagon since 2018, stopping Krzysztof Jotko via technical knockout (see that here). That’s six long years for the math wizards among us. And he’s unlikely to stop “GM3,” who is notoriously tough — unless you’re named Khamzat Chimaev (watch highlights) or Joe Pyfer.

Yes, Reinier de Ridder tapped him out in his last outing, but that was a three-round meme fight.

While Tavares isn’t a finisher, the same cannot be said for Meerschaert, who holds the record for most finishes in UFC 185-pound history (12). However, his method of finishing opponents relies on taking them down and strangling them. The problem is, Tavares arguably has the best takedown defense at 185 pounds and has never been submitted in 30 fights.

So, what we have is two experienced cage fighters who are going to cancel out each other for all intents and purposes. Tavares can’t knockout “GM3,” while Meerschaert won’t be able to submit the Hawaiian.

Someone on Twitter sees it a bit different — checkout their breakdown below:

GROK AI added this as well:

The middleweight clash between Brad Tavares and Gerald Meerschaert has the potential to end early due to their contrasting styles and vulnerabilities. Meerschaert, a submission specialist with 35 stoppage wins in his 37-18 career, thrives on the ground, boasting the most submission victories in UFC middleweight history. His recent performances, including back-to-back submission wins over Bryan Barberena and Edmen Shahbazyan in 2024, highlight his ability to capitalize on grappling opportunities, especially against opponents who falter in scrambles. If he can close the distance and drag Tavares to the mat — despite Tavares’ historically strong 80 percent takedown defense, which has shown signs of decline with age — Meerschaert could lock in a choke or armbar within the first two rounds.

On the flip side, Tavares, with a 20-10 record, excels as a technical striker with endless cardio, but his chin has become suspect after three knockout losses since 2019. Meerschaert, though not a knockout artist, has enough power to wobble Tavares early, potentially setting up a finish if he catches him off-guard during a striking exchange. Given Tavares’ recent 1-4 skid and Meerschaert’s knack for finding finishes, this fight could end abruptly if either exploits the other’s weakening durability or defensive lapses before the final bell.

Brad Tavares To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +320
Brad Tavares To Win By Submission: +2000
Brad Tavares To Win By Decision: -110
Draw: +5000
Gerald Meerschaert To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +1200
Gerald Meerschaert To Win By Submission: +400
Gerald Meerschaert To Win By Decision: +600

Do you agree with our lock of the weekend? Please sound off in the comments and let us know your most confident UFC Vegas 105 pick this weekend. Correct “lock” predictions will be shared in our “Best of the Best” article next week, too.

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