Men’s College Basketball NCAA Tournament Bracketology for March 4, 2025

At the top of the bracket, despite the Tennessee Volunteers’ last-second 79-76 win over the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday afternoon, Nate Oats’ squad remains as the final No. 1 seed, with Rick Barnes’ club the top No. 2. This comes down to the teams’ overall body of work so far—Alabama may have one more loss than Tennessee, but the Tide has a better road/neutral record (11-4 vs. 9-4), a slightly better top-tier record (6-4 in Quad 1A games against teams 1-15 at home, 1-25 on a neutral floor, and 1-40 on the road, compared to 6-5) and fewer games played against Quads 3 and 4 (6-0 vs. 10-0). Still, things could change as soon as Wednesday, as Alabama hosts fellow top-seed contender Florida and Tennessee visits Mississippi.

Marquette is the only new entrant in the top 16, replacing Purdue, even if the Boilermakers stopped their four-game skid by defeating UCLA 76-66 on Friday night. The Golden Eagles will have to fight to stay on the 4 line, as they close the regular season with a Wednesday road game at UConn (in Storrs) and host St. John’s, now a 3 seed, on Saturday.

At the Cut Line, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas all dropped out of the field, with only Georgia replacing them—meaning the SEC’s bid total fell from 13 to 11. The Big Ten remains at 11, as Indiana has earned some breathing room, while Nebraska and Ohio State have dropped into the danger zone. Xavier became the fifth Big East team, following Saturday’s dominant 83-61 home win over Creighton, the Musketeers’ fifth in a row and seventh in nine.

It was another bad week for the ACC, as North Carolina is still no closer to rejoining the field—the Tar Heels really need to beat Duke Saturday to have any chance, SMU still doesn’t have a Quad 1 win, and Pitt and Wake Forest have failed to make a late impression. The Panthers’ fight against Louisville was admirable, but not enough, while a 33-point loss at Duke only helped to further damage the Demon Deacons’ metrics.

There’s quite a lot to look forward to on the final Tuesday of the regular season, with my thoughts on the slate following the full bracket.

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Up (⬆︎) and down (⬇︎) arrows reflect movement of a seed line (or more) relative to the bracket projection for Friday, February 28, 2025, while a star (★) indicates a new entry.

Top Left: (1) South (Atlanta)

Lexington (Thursday and Saturday)
(1) Auburn (SEC)
★/—(16) Bucknell (Patriot)/Southern (SWAC)

⬇︎(8) Kansas
⬇︎(9) Utah State

Providence (Thursday and Saturday)
(5) Oregon
⬇︎/★(12) Boise State/Georgia

⬇︎(4) Kentucky
(13) High Point (Big South)

Denver (Thursday and Saturday)
⬆︎(6) UCLA
⬆︎(11) Drake (MVC)

⬇︎(3) Texas A&M
★(14) Jacksonville State (CUSA)

Cleveland (Friday and Sunday)
(7) Mississippi
(10) Baylor

(2) Michigan State (Big Ten)
(15) Towson (CAA)

Top Right: (2) East (Newark)

Raleigh (Friday and Sunday)
(1) Duke (ACC)
—/★(16) Southeast Missouri (OVC)/Quinnipiac (MAAC)

(8) UConn
⬆︎(9) Vanderbilt

Seattle (Friday and Sunday)
(5) Saint Mary’s (WCC)
⬆︎(12) Yale (Ivy)

(4) Purdue
(13) Akron (MAC)

Milwaukee (Friday and Sunday)
⬆︎(6) Louisville
—/★(11) Ohio State/Xavier

(3) Iowa State
★(14) South Alabama (Sun Belt)

Cleveland (Friday and Sunday)
⬇︎(7) Creighton
⬆︎(10) Indiana

(2) Florida
⬆︎(15) Bryant (AE)

Bottom Right: (3) Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita (Thursday and Saturday)
(1) Houston (Big 12)
(16) Omaha (Summit)

⬆︎(8) Illinois
(9) New Mexico (MW)

Denver (Thursday and Saturday)
(5) Missouri
(12) McNeese (Southland)

(4) Michigan
(13) Lipscomb (ASUN)

Providence (Thursday and Saturday)
(6) Maryland
(11) VCU (A 10)

⬆︎(3) St. John’s (Big East)
(14) Chattanooga (SoCon)

Raleigh (Friday and Sunday)
(7) Memphis (American)
⬇︎(10) West Virginia

(2) Tennessee
(15) Central Connecticut (NEC)

Bottom Left: (4) West (San Francisco)

Lexington (Thursday and Saturday)
(1) Alabama
⬇︎(16) Norfolk State (MEAC)

(8) BYU
(9) Gonzaga

Seattle (Friday and Sunday)
⬇︎(5) Arizona
(12) UC San Diego (Big West)

⬆︎(4) Marquette
(13) Utah Valley (WAC)

Wichita (Thursday and Saturday)
(6) Mississippi State
⬇︎(11) Nebraska

(3) Texas Tech
★(14) Northern Colorado (Big Sky)

Milwaukee (Friday and Sunday)
(7) Clemson
(10) San Diego State

(2) Wisconsin
(15) Robert Morris (Horizon)

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Rundown

Ins and Outs (7)

IN: Bucknell (Patriot), Georgia, Jacksonville State (CUSA), Northern Colorado (Big Sky), Quinnipiac (MAAC), South Alabama (Sin Belt), Xavier

OUT: American(Patriot), Arkansas, James Madison (Sun Belt), Liberty (CUSA), Marist (MAAC), Montana (Big Sky), Oklahoma

Cut Line

Last 4 Byes: San Diego State, Baylor, Indiana, Nebraska
Last 4 In: Ohio State, Xavier, Boise State, Georgia
First 4 Out: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, North Carolina
Next 4 Out: Cincinnati, SMU, UC Irvine, Colorado State
On Deck: Wake Forest, Villanova, Pitt, Santa Clara

Highest-ranked NET exclusion: Cincinnati (40)
Highest-ranked KenPom exclusion: North Carolina (39)
Highest-ranked WAB (Torvik) exclusion: Wake Forest (42, +0.9 WAB)

Lowest-ranked NET inclusion: Nebraska (56)
Lowest-ranked KenPom inclusion: Utah State (56)
Lowest-ranked WAB inclusion: Nebraska (58, -0.39 WAB)

Bids By Conference

24 single-bid conferences

Big Ten (11): Michigan State (auto), Wisconsin, Michigan, Purdue, Oregon, Maryland, UCLA, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State (First Four)
SEC (11): Auburn (auto), Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Georgia (First Four)
Big 12 (8): Houston (auto), Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, BYU, Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor
Big East (5): St John’s (auto), Marquette, Creighton, UConn, Xavier (First Four)
Mountain West (4): Utah State, New Mexico (auto), San Diego State, Boise State (First Four)
ACC (3): Duke (auto), Clemson, Louisville
WCC (2): Saint Mary’s (auto), Gonzaga

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Seed List

* indicates auto bid holder

(1) Auburn*, Duke*, Houston*, Alabama
(2) Tennessee, Florida, Michigan State*, Wisconsin
(3) Texas Tech, Iowa State, Texas A&M, St. John’s*
(4) Kentucky, Michigan, Marquette, Purdue
(5) Arizona, Oregon, Missouri, Saint Mary’s*
(6) Maryland, UCLA, Louisville, Mississippi State
(7) Memphis*, Creighton, Clemson, Mississippi
(8) BYU, UConn, Illinois, Kansas
(9) Vanderbilt, New Mexico*, Utah State, Gonzaga
(10) West Virginia, San Diego State, Baylor, Indiana
(11) Drake*, Nebraska, Ohio State (First Four), Xavier (First Four), VCU*
(12) UC San Diego*, Boise State (First Four), Georgia (First Four)*, McNeese*, Yale*
(13) High Point*, Lipscomb*, Akron*, Utah Valley*
(14) Jacksonville State*, South Alabama*, Chattanooga*, Northern Colorado*
(15) Towson*, Robert Morris*, Central Connecticut*, Bryant*
(16) Norfolk State*, Omaha*, Southeast Missouri* (First Four), Quinnipiac* (First Four), Bucknell* (First Four), Southern* (First Four)

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Tuesday’s Slate

All times are p.m. Eastern. Check out the daily schedule at MattSarzSports.com for a full listing of televised and streaming games.

Games are listed in rough order of importance by window. Leader(s) of single-bid conferences are in bold.

Early Evening ET

Georgia at South Carolina, 6 (SECN) — The Gamecocks have another opportunity to play spoiler at home after defeating Texas and Arkansas on consecutive Saturdays.
LSU at Kentucky, 7 (ESPN2) — The Wildcats dropped to a 4 seed following Saturday’s home loss to Auburn.
North Carolina at Virginia Tech, 7 (ESPNU) — The Tar Heels cannot get caught looking ahead to Saturday.
Rutgers at Purdue, 7 (Peacock ($)) — The Boilermakers are still very much in the hunt for a top 4 seed nationally. The Scarlet Knights are just trying to get into the Big Ten Tournament.
Creighton at Seton Hall, 7 (FS1) — The Bluejays need to bounce back from Saturday’s no-show at Xavier.
Memphis at UTSA, 7 (ESPN+ ($)) — The Tigers’ finish isn’t as brutal as usual, but losing to the Roadrunners could damage their seeding.
VCU at Duquesne, 7 (CBSSN) — The Rams cannot lose this if they want to remain an at-large threat.
Saint Louis at Dayton, 7 (Spectrum News 1/ESPN+ ($)) — The Billikens and Flyers are currently in a four-way tie for third in the Atlantic 10 with Loyola Chicago and Saint Joe’s, so double-byes to the quarterfinals in D.C. are on the line.
Akron at Toledo, 7 (ESPN+ ($)) — The Zips have secured the MAC’s top seed, but the Rockets need a win to make it to Cleveland next week.
New Hampshire at Bryant, 6 (ESPN+ ($)); UMass Lowell at Maine, 6 (ESPN+ ($)); and Albany at Vermont, 7 (ESPN+ ($)) — The Bulldogs are a game up on the Catamounts for the top seed in the America East, while the Black Bears enter the league finale in the driver’s seat for third.

Mid-Evening ET

Missouri at Oklahoma, 8 (SEC Network+/ESPN+ ($)) — The Sooners’ non-conference wins give them a slight edge on both Texas and Arkansas, but they really need a high-quality SEC win at this point. The Tigers could provide that.
Texas at Mississippi State, 8 (SECN) — The Longhorns need to win in Starkville to stay in the hunt.
Villanova at Georgetown, 8 (Peacock ($)) — The Wildcats have climbed back into contention, but a loss in D.C. wouldn’t help their case.
Baylor at TCU, 8 (ESPN+ ($)) — The Bears’ at-large case isn’t as good as you would expect. They might be ticketed for Dayton in Friday’s projection with a loss tonight.

Late Evening ET

Auburn at Texas A&M, 9 (ESPN) — The Tigers will almost assuredly be the No. 1 overall seed, but the Aggies will need to beat them to have a chance at returning to the 2 line.
BYU at Iowa State, 9 (ESPN2) — A win in Ames would get the Cougars out of the 8/9 range (pending a seeding adjustment to allow them to play Thursday/Saturday) while dinging the Cyclones’ 2 seed hopes.
Indiana at Oregon, 9 (FS1) — No bubble team has done more to boost itself than the Hoosiers. But winning in Eugene against a Ducks squad that still has top 4 seed hopes wont’ be easy.
Nebraska at Ohio State, 9 (Peacock ($)) — Not an elimination game, but close. Winner will probably be among the “Last Four Byes” on Friday, and the loser will likely be placed in Dayton.
West Virginia at Utah, 9 (ESPN+ ($)) — Dangerous game for the Mountaineers.
New Mexico at Nevada, 9 (CBSSN) — A game the Lobos must win if they don’t want to get left out should they fail to win the Mountain West auto bid.
Boise State at Air Force, 9 (Altitude 2/MWN) — The Broncos would drop significantly with a loss against a terrible Falcons squad.
Syracuse at SMU, 9 (ESPNU) — The Mustangs need to avoid embarrassment against the Orange.
San José State at Colorado State, 9 (MWN) — Another must-win game for a Mountain West bubble team, but at least the Spartans visit Fort Collins.

Late Night ET

Arkansas at Vanderbilt, 10 (SECN) — Weird tip time in Nashville for a Commodores team that’s pretty much safe now and a Razorback squad that needs some good news fast.
Arizona State at Arizona, 11 (ESPN) — The Wildcats will look to take care of business and stay in the hunt for a top 4 seed.
San Diego State at UNLV, 11 (CBSSN) — Yet another Mountain West bubble squad hits the road.

There is also first-round action in the Horizon League, Patriot League, and Sun Belt Conference Tournaments. More info at those links and on Conference Tournament Central. All of those games will be on ESPN+ ($).

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