Penn State will be in Ann Arbor for its most critical games of the season in the best-of-3 first round of the Big Ten tournament. The Nittany Lions are most likely in a win-and-in situation, but games from other conferences will loom large for the overall tournament picture. The Big Ten, Atlantic Hockey, ECAC, and CCHA all begin conference tournaments this week, with Hockey East and the NCHC following suit next week.
Playoff Picture
Based on the current Pairwise and the probability matrix, the playoff picture looks like this, with projected conference tournament champions in italics:
Locks (8): Boston College, Michigan State, Minnesota, Maine, Western Michigan, Providence, UConn, Boston University
Safe (2): Ohio State, Denver
Bubble In (4): Michigan, UMass, Quinnipiac, Penn State
Automatic Bids (3): Minnesota State, Holy Cross
Bubble Out (2): UMass-Lowell, Arizona State
Some notes here:
- Quinnipiac- ranked No. 13- would receive a bid if the tournament started today. However, its chances of an at-large bid (28%) are still vulnerable. The Bobcats are idle this weekend but cannot afford to be one-and-done in the conference tournament, especially if Penn State advances this weekend.
- UMass-Lowell (18%) and Arizona State (11%) are not completely eliminated from at-large contention, but their margin for error is slim.
- Michigan’s standing (78% chance of an at-large) seems secure, but there is a possibility of the Wolverines dropping close to the bubble if they are swept by Penn State.
Key Games This Weekend
No. 14 Penn State at No. 11 Michigan- Friday and Saturday at 7pm
Rooting Interest: Penn State- Do I need to elaborate further?
No. 20 New Hampshire vs. No. 15 UMass-Lowell- Friday and Saturday at 7pm
Rooting Interest: New Hampshire- even just one loss for UMass-Lowell could finish off the River Hawks’ at-large chances.
No. 4 Maine vs. No. 12 Massachusetts- Friday and Saturday at 7pm
Rooting Interest: Maine- Should the Nittany Lions beat Michigan, one (or potentially two) Minutemen losses could leap PSU over UMass in the Pairwise.