Conference tournaments have started this week while regular seasons are also ending across college basketball. So, heading into the first weekend of the postseason for some and the final weekend of conference play for others, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has updated the latest official projection for Bracketology.
In updates after results during the week since Tuesday, Lunardi shifted seeding throughout the field as nearly a third of the teams moved up or down a seed-line across the four regions. That included one move amongst the No. 1 seeds.
The conference totals then have not changed since Lunardi’s update on social media on Thursday. The SEC and Big Ten still lead with double-digit berths with a dozen and ten respectively while, from there, the order goes Big 12 (8), Big East (5), Mountain West (4), ACC (3), and WCC (2). Five or six of those leagues are closely watching that bubble, though, to determine their final total come next weekend on Selection Sunday.
Here’s how Lunardi updated the bracket on Friday before tickets start getting punched into the 2025 NCAA Tournament:
ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble
Last Four Byes: Utah State, Georgia, Ohio State, Arkansas
Last Four In: San Diego State, Indiana, Boise State, Xavier
First Four Out: Oklahoma, North Carolina, Texas, Nebraska
Next Four Out: Colorado State, Cincinnati, SMU, Wake Forest
The bubble is still very much a storyline for the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Mountain West. To start with the top two leagues, the Southeastern Conference has Georgia and Arkansas more firmly in while Oklahoma and Texas will now essentially be playing a game with play-in implications tomorrow in Austin. The Big Ten is then in a similar spot with Ohio State in the byes, Indiana among the Last Four In, and Nebraska hanging on among the First Four Out.
The ACC, though, continues to fade with North Carolina still among the First Teams Out while SMU and Wake Forest have slid to the back of the Next Four Out. Finally, of the four total berths in the Mountain West, Utah State, San Diego State, and Boise State are all just in the field while Colorado State is trying to make that a total of six with them in the Next Four Out.
South Region – Atlanta
Although losing on Tuesday, Lunardi focused this update at ESPN on the “remarkable year” by “the runaway No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed” in Auburn. At 27-3 overall after winning the regular season title in the Southeastern Conference, the Tigers are having “arguably the greatest regular season” since Kentucky was undefeated a decade ago in 2015. They could now only cap that off in a top-ten, in-state rematch this weekend against Alabama.
From there in the South, Georgia is then up to a No. 10 seed trending off the bubble with three straight wins – one ranked one in the top-ten and two on the road. All the other moves are downward with Kansas down again to a No. 8 seed after a pair of top-ten losses, as the Jayhawks are just a game over .500 since December, while San Diego State and Indiana, after respective road losses, slid to the Last Four In with the two now set to meet in Dayton.
1. Auburn vs. 16. Southern/Bucknell
8. Kansas vs. 9. New Mexico
5. Oregon vs. 12. Boise State/Xavier
4. Arizona vs. 13. Lipscomb
6. Louisville vs. 11. San Diego State/Indiana
3. St. John’s vs. 14. Towson
7. Memphis vs. 10. Georgia
2. Michigan State vs. 15. Robert Morris
East Region – Newark
Duke remained the second of the No. 1 overall seeds out of the East Region for ESPN coming into this weekend’s rematch down Tobacco Road. With a win in Chapel Hill, the Blue Devils, who are currently 27-3 overall having lost just once the past three months with an average margin of victory in that span of 23.7, would win the regular-season outright in the ACC
Maryland and BYU are then both up a line to a No. 4 and a No. 7 seed respectively after ranked road wins in Ann Arbor and Ames while Ohio State is up to a No. 10 seed with two straight wins, including their most recent between two bubbles teams with them and Nebraska. Because of that home loss to the Cougars, Iowa State also fell to a No. 3 seed.
1. Duke vs. 16. Quinnipiac/Southeast Missouri State
8. Connecticut vs. 9. Vanderbilt
5. Missouri vs. 12. Yale
4. Maryland vs. 13. Liberty
6. UCLA vs. 11. UC San Diego
3. Iowa State vs. 14. Northern Colorado
7. BYU vs. 10. Ohio State
2. Alabama vs. 15. South Alabama
Midwest Region – Indianapolis
Houston, who has already clinched the regular-season in the Big 12, is the third of the No. 1 seeds at ESPN. That’s with the Cougars at 26-4 (18-1) overall as they’ve lost just once, by a point in overtime, since December as they’re on a nine-game win streak with three of their four ranked wins coming in the last three weeks.
In the Midwest, Texas A&M is up to a No. 3 seed as, after being on a four-game losing streak, just the third team all season to beat Auburn – with the Aggies giving them their largest loss of 11. Tennessee at No. 2, Mississippi State at No. 8, and VCU at No. 11 are then all down, specifically the first pair after the Vols came off the one-line after being upset in Oxford while the Bulldogs, losers of three of four now, were upset at home by the Sooners.
1. Houston vs. 16. Omaha
8. Mississippi State vs. 9. Gonzaga
5. Clemson vs. 12. Drake
4. Purdue vs. 13. Akron
6. Marquette vs. 11. VCU
3. Texas A&M vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. Illinois vs. 10. Baylor
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Central Connecticut State
West Region – San Francisco
Florida has since gotten back up to a No. 1 seed at ESPN after their five-point road win at Alabama on Wednesday. That has the Gators, the second-place team in the SEC at 13-4, at 26-4 overall with impressive wins over the other four teams in the top-five of the conference.
The West Region then had the most movement starting with Texas Tech up to a No. 2, Ole Miss up to a No. 7 after beating the Volunteers, and then West Virginia up to a No. 9 and Arkansas up on the bubble to a No. 11 after road wins in conference this week. Then, moving downward, Kentucky is a No. 4 seed, Michigan is a No. 5 having dropped their last two at home to cost them the race in the Big Ten, Utah State is a No. 10 having lost two straight in blowouts to other bubble teams in the Mountain West, and then Chattanooga to a No. 14 as the auto-bid out of the SoCon.
1. Florida vs. 16. Norfolk State
8. Creighton vs. 9. West Virginia
5. Michigan vs. 12. McNeese State
4. Kentucky vs. 13. High Point
6. Saint Mary’s vs. 11. Arkansas
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Chattanooga
7. Ole Miss vs. 10. Utah State
2. Texas Tech vs. 15. Bryant