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Our previews continue today with some intrigue in the National League Central, Ken explains why you can never count the Cleveland Guardians out and we check in with some of our esteemed beat writer colleagues.
I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
Division Previews: A tempting pick in the NL Central
Sure, the Cubs (83-79 last year) appear to have positioned themselves to be the favorites in the division with a slew of acquisitions, headlined by OF Kyle Tucker and RHP Ryan Pressly from the Astros. I’m interested to see how Matt Shaw’s rookie campaign plays out at third base. But will they slug enough to be dangerous?
Speaking of teams with no slug … the Pirates (76-86) might have one of the better top ends of a rotation if Jared Jones’ elbow discomfort isn’t serious. Mitch Keller is good, and Andrew Heaney will at least give you some quality innings. But outside of Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, the lineup gets thin — and quickly. Tommy Pham should help, but it would be huge if 28-year-old Ke’Bryan Hayes could stay healthy and finally grow into all that potential.
I think the Reds (77-85) could be sneaky good, which is something I have said each of the last three years, and I was only right in 2023. Elly De La Cruz is the game’s most exciting player, and the Reds’ core of youngsters are rounding into their prime years. Terry Francona’s return to managing can only help. The question, as always: Is their pitching good enough?
Let’s not forget the Brewers (93-69), even though every move they make seems designed to encourage us to do so. The two latest: Devin Williams (trade, Yankees) and Willy Adames (free agency, Giants). They do have Nestor Cortes now, which isn’t nothing. Over the last few years, the Brewers have shed parts like a poorly maintained 1965 Pinto doing 90 mph. But she’s still running — the Brewers have won the division three out of the last four seasons.
And then there are the Cardinals (83-79), whose failure to trade off veterans this offseason (particularly Nolan Arenado) means they’re in a liminal space between contending and rebuilding. Will they be the worst team in the division? Probably not, but I expect them to be the most boring one. (We’ll have more on this topic tomorrow).
My pick? I really want to say the Reds, but I don’t think they’re quite there. I’m being boring and picking the Cubs. (Our experts agree.)
Ken’s Notebook: Cleveland continues crafty maneuvering
If you had to guess, where would you say the Cleveland Guardians rank in regular-season wins since 2016? Seventh? Tenth? Fifteenth?
Try fourth, behind only the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees.
Yes, I’m using arbitrary end points to make my case. But while the Tampa Bay Rays routinely draw praise for their small-market wizardry, the Guardians are even more successful. This season, they will face their typical uphill battle. And as usual, it is unwise to bet against them.
The Guardians were busy over the weekend doing Guardians things. First, they signed right-hander Tanner Bibee to a five-year, $48 million extension with a club option. Then, they acquired outfielder Nolan Jones from the Rockies for utility man Tyler Freeman.
The Bibee deal covers at least one and possibly two of his free-agent years, extending Cleveland’s club control with their staff ace. The return of Jones, whom the Guardians traded for infielder Juan Brito in November 2022, gives the team a left-handed hitting right fielder to platoon with the right-handed Jhonkensy Noel.
Jones, who turns 27 in May, produced a 20-20 season in 2023 and finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. He regressed last season, in part due to lower back trouble, then struggled again this spring. The Rockies, worried that he was losing confidence, did not plan to include him on their Opening Day roster.
Freeman, an excellent defender at up-the-middle positions, gives the Rockies a replacement for Thairo Estrada, who is out four to eight weeks with a broken right wrist. But perhaps the Rockies should be alarmed the Guardians wanted Jones back, believing he could help with their on-base percentage and power.
No team is perfect in its decision-making, but the Guardians generally are shrewd operators. Facing their usual payroll challenges, they dumped nearly $110 million of contracts on the Blue Jays during the offseason, parting with a declining hitter, second baseman Andrés Giménez, and an outfielder who spent nearly all of last season in the minors, Myles Straw.
The trades of Giménez and first baseman Josh Naylor seemingly make it unlikely the Guardians will return to the ALCS. But they flipped first baseman Spencer Horwitz, part of their return for Giménez, to the Pittsburgh Pirates for a starting pitcher, Luis Ortiz, and two left-handed pitching prospects. They re-signed Carlos Santana to play first and will choose from Brito and others at second. Their biggest free-agent signing was right-hander Shane Bieber, who is expected to return from Tommy John surgery sometime this summer. And, lest anyone forget, the Cleveland bullpen last season was the best in baseball — by far.
The Guardians will figure it out. They almost always do.
At Last: Pulling back the curtain on beat writer life
If you’re reading this, you are likely familiar with The Athletic’s excellent beat writers, whose work we highlight daily. So with about 72 hours left in the offseason, I asked a few of the names who frequently appear in these digital pages to share the No. 1 item left on their to-do list before Opening Day:
Chandler Rome, Astros writer: Texting my non-baseball friends I haven’t seen in six weeks to let them know I won’t see them for another six months.
Chris Kirschner, Yankees writer: On Tuesday, my fianceé and I will have our second dance lesson in preparation for our wedding in May.
Cody Stavenhagen, Tigers writer: Hug my girlfriend. Pet my dog. Unpack a suitcase and pack again for a cross-country flight to L.A.
Grant Brisbee, Giants writer: I still need to carve out a little time to finish my novel. Also, start it. “It was a dark and stormy night” is a pretty good opener, but it gets a little muddled after that.
Jen McCaffrey, Red Sox writer: Grab dinner with my parents. But I should probably also do my taxes soon, right? Also laundry. And packing. And looking up some coffee shops in Dallas, where I’ll be for five days later this week.
Sahadev Sharma, Cubs writer: This month will be CHI ✈️ PHX ✈️ CHI ✈️ TYO ✈️ PHX ✈️ CHI with daylight savings and so many unnecessary layovers mixed in. So tops on my list is figuring out what day and time it is, maybe sleeping normally again and perhaps even getting my brain to work properly.
Sam Blum, Angels writer: I’ll have to find a winter coat somewhere, because MLB thought it was a good decision to have the White Sox and Angels play the opening March series in Chicago, instead of Anaheim.
Give ‘em all a follow, yeah? And this should be our last installment of Peak Offseason Content for this go-around. Moving on:
Handshakes and High Fives
Christian Petersen / Getty Images
What were the lessons from MLB’s spring robot umpire test? Jayson Stark answers all of the big questions.
Just go ahead and bookmark this page now. Every MLB writer at The Athletic made their picks for MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in both leagues, as well as the World Series winner and runner-up. We’ll see you back here in October in the comments.
For now, 41-year-old Max Scherzer is going to keep pitching through a thumb issue in his first season in Toronto. After his final preseason start, he explained the careful tightrope he’s currently navigating. In other Blue Jays news, the team extended catcher Alejandro Kirk yesterday, giving him a five-year deal worth $58 million.
The Braves and Angels have made their fourth trade with each other since last season. This time, it was a swap of two struggling pitchers, with Ian Anderson heading to Anaheim and José Suarez on his way to Atlanta.
With Alex Bregman and Garrett Crochet in the fold and several top prospects expected to debut, the Red Sox will look a bit different on the field this season. Behind the scenes, their front office has seen some significant changes under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. Jen McCaffrey dug into just how extensive the restructuring was.
What are we hearing and seeing as MLB camps start to wind down?
One other thing we heard in camp? Some longtime Yankees fans and spring attendees are not happy with the level of access to players after renovations to George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. Brendan Kuty talked to a number of them.
Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Chad Jennings and Jim Bowden’s American League East preview.
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(Top photo: Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)
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