ANN ARBOR — In a sport judged by how teams perform in March, Michigan is off to a rough start.
The Wolverines have lost two straight since the calendar turned, both at home, including Wednesday’s 71-65 loss to Maryland. After starting the season 20-5, they’re 2-3 with a tough regular-season finale at Michigan State remaining.
“We know what it takes (to win),” Michigan center Vladislav Goldin said. “We have to put our head down and start working. We can’t panic.”
There’s no reason to. The Wolverines’ recent slide does not mean they will necessarily suffer an early exit in the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan is currently projected as a 4 seed in many bracket projections. Last season, 4 seed Alabama went 3-3 over its last six regular-season games, lost its conference tournament opener, and made the Final Four. Duke (a 4 seed) and Clemson (6) each lost two games in that span, plus their conference tournament openers, and still made the Elite Eight. North Carolina State went 1-5 at the end of the regular season before catching fire and winning nine straight to win the ACC Tournament and get to the Final Four as an 11 seed.
In recent years, 6 seeds Creighton (2023) and USC (2021) went 3-3 to close the regular season and reached the Elite Eight.
In short, not many of the 68 teams enter the NCAA Tournament firing on all cylinders. And quite a few of those survive and advance.
Speaking on Michigan’s confidence level after Wednesday’s game, head coach Dusty May said, “All the guys in our locker room have a lot of evidence and background of playing basketball at a high level. And so we’ve got to figure out a way to regroup, ground ourselves, and find that energy and synergy that you need to play well.”
Better outside shooting would go a long way. Michigan’s 12 best 3-point-shooting performances, by percentage or total makes, all came before February. Michigan has not shot better than 35 percent from 3 in a game since.
“I mean it’s a real thing,” forward Danny Wolf said. “When the ball’s not going in and you have a few games back to back to back (like that), that rim seems smaller and smaller. You’ve just got to see a few go in.”
Wolf made 2 of 3 from deep against Maryland; so did Tre Donaldson. The confidence is there, Wolf said. At the very least he’s trying to speak it into existence.
“Eventually we’re due for a good shooting game and I’m happy that it’s going to come at some point in March,” he said. “And (then we’ve) just got to carry that over.”
The Wolverines looked great for two games in Florida before Thanksgiving and two games in Los Angeles to start 2025. They had a six-game win streak in the Big Ten before their current skid, which includes a 13-point loss to Michigan State and Sunday’s 20-point loss to Illinois.
“Usually the dips occur when you’re playing really good teams,” May said. “When you look at our schedule, we knew this would be a challenge.”
Michigan State is the highest-ranked Big Ten in the NET (No. 11). Maryland is right behind (12) and Illinois is up there too (17).
As May noted, Michigan isn’t the only Big Ten that experienced a rough patch. Michigan State lost three of four to start February. Purdue lost four in a row last month.
None of this means Michigan can’t have success next week in the Big Ten Tournament or in the NCAA Tournament, where seasons are defined.
By the metrics, the teams the Wolverines would face in the first round of the Big Dance will be considerably worse than the teams they’ve played this week. They’d be closer to what Michigan would see in the second round and beyond.
The Wolverines’ wins over Wisconsin and Purdue, to name two, prove they can beat upper-echelon teams. They believe they can return to that level when it counts the most.
As Wolf said he told his teammates after Wednesday’s loss. “The best part of college basketball is ahead of us. We have all the talent, we have the coaching, we have everything we need.”
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