UFC Vegas 105 main card odds, breakdowns and predictions

This weekend (Sat., April 5, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 105. It is precisely the event one would expect. The main event is a definitely banger, a Featherweight collision of high-level strikers Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy. And Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito is another quality 145-pound booking in the co-main, and the rest of the card, well … it’s fine. I actually like the undercard — which features veteran scrappers Davey Grant and Victor Henry — better overall, but there’s still some decent action throughout the card.

Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the first four main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

Bantamweight: Chang Ho Lee (-148) vs. Cortavious Romious (+124)

Best Win for Lee? Long Xiao For Romious? Michael Imperato
Current Streak: Lee recently won his UFC debut, whereas Romious came up short in his own first Octagon appearance
X-Factor: Lee is the heavier hitter
How these two match up: Why on Earth is this so high up the card?

Lee is a recent winner of the Road to UFC series and seems to be hitting his prime. He’s an aggressive puncher with nasty ground striking, though he doesn’t always have the most consistent avenue to grounding his opponent. Conversely, Romious is something of a generalist. The 31-year-old from Missouri has scored a majority of his finishes via submission, which feels like a possible path to victory here.

Though both men are reasonably well-rounded, I expect this to look like a “Striker vs. Grappler” match up. Lee is the bigger man by a significant margin and is the more threatening puncher. I expect Romious to wrestle in response, particularly since Lee was taken down six times throughout his Road To UFC run.

Will Romious be able to do much with those takedowns though? He failed to get much going on the floor versus Gaston Bolanos, who is generally a less experienced grappler than Lee. Add in the size advantage, I expect the South Korean prospect will be able to hold his own on the canvas, ultimately allowing him to land the heavier shots throughout the night.

Prediction: Lee via decision

Heavyweight: Kennedy Nzechukwu (-325) vs. Martin Buday (+260)

Best Win for Nzechukwu? Ion Cutelaba For Buday? Andrei Arlovski
Current Streak: Nzechukwu has won two in a row, while Buday rebounded in his last bout
X-Factor: Nzechukwu is a puffed up 205-pounder
How these two match up: It should be a slugfest.

Nzechukwu made his name at Light Heavyweight via the ability to take a beat and come back strong late, like in his second-round knockout over Carlos Ulberg (watch highlights). He rose into the rankings but struggled against more technical opposition, prompting his jump up a division, where he’s currently 2-0. Buday, conversely, has quietly put together a 5-1 record as a UFC Heavyweight. He’s a full-sized big boy, weighing in at 265 pounds, yet still able to throw punches at an impressive clip for three full rounds.

The problem is Buday also eats punches at a solid rate. He’s rather hittable and doesn’t have that much power himself. Given Nzechukwu’s own punching power and his comfort under fire, it feels likely that the two have some fun trades precisely until Nzechukwu puts him down hard.

Prediction: Nzechukwu via knockout

Middleweight: Gerald Meerschaert (+215) vs. Brad Tavares (-265)

Best Win for Meerschaert? Edmen Shahbazyan For Tavares? Chris Weidman
Current Streak: Meerschaert lost his last bout, whereas Tavares has lost two in a row
X-Factor: Both of these veterans are long in the tooth
How these two match up: Now here’s something to get excited about!

Neither Meerschaert nor Tavares are at their best anymore, but at least we know exactly what we’re getting when these two hard-nosed scrappers step into the cage. Meerschaert is a kill-or-be-killed athlete, a submission ace whose only answer to getting his takedowns stuffed is to throw harder punches. Tavares is more of a technician, a kickboxer who specializes in destabilizing his opponent’s base and shucking off takedowns.

Historically, this is an easy Tavares pick every day of the week. His technical kickboxing and excellent takedown defense feel like a perfect solution to the “GM3” grappling-and-brawling combo. I have to admit, however, that Tavares’ loss to “The Iron Turtle” Jun Yong Park was concerning. Not only did Tavares fatigue, but he was out-wrestled by a man best known for his scrappy kickboxing.

A couple years ago, neither of those things would’ve happened. There’s a real concern here that Tavares is the more washed fighter despite having competed 15 fewer times. If Tavares gets wobbled or dragged to the floor by Meerschaert, his foe is a much more dangerous finisher. I’m still willing to predict that Tavares has the speed and defense to make it work, but I’m far less confident than if the bout were taking place in 2020.

Prediction: Tavares via decision

Middleweight: Torrez Finney (-250) vs. Robert Valentin (+205)

Best Win for Finney? Abdellah Er-Ramy For Valentin? Samuil Shelest
Current Streak: Finney debuts at 10-0, while Valentin lost his own UFC debut last time out
X-Factor: Possible UFC jitters for Finney
How these two match up: I love a bizarre fight featuring unique athletes … and this would appear to fit the bill.

Finney’s unusual build as a jacked 5’8” Middleweight and minor beef with UFC CEO, Dana White (details here), has led him to be something of an Internet fan favorite. Beyond that, we’re talking about an undefeated 26-year-old wrestling talent with a really high work rate. On the flip side, Valentin is a wild man with a penchant for pulling the finish from anywhere. The Swiss prospect is just 30 years old himself, dangerous on the floor and on the feet.

I think this is much more of a test for Finney than the oddsmakers are letting on, likely because of Valentin’s debut loss to Ryan Loder. Both Finney and Loder are wrestlers, but there’s a clear difference here. Finney is an accomplished high school wrestler in a state not known for wrestling, whereas Loder was an Division 1 All-American who was coaching D1 wrestling before his MMA career began.

That’s a world of difference, and Valentin still put Loder in some terrible positions in the first. He’s genuinely dangerous in a way that good wrestling alone may not be enough, and I’m not sure Finney has much depth yet to the rest of his game.

Prediction: Valentin via submission

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2025: 15-9

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 105 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

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