On Saturday afternoon, North Carolina cruised to a comfortable 19-point win against Miami. The Tar Heels are now winners of five straight, with four in a row by double digits. Even against the lesser of ACC competition, North Carolina has kept NCAA Tournament hopes alive as the 2024-25 regular season wraps up next week.
The unfortunate reality of being on the bubble is that it does matter what other teams do, especially down the stretch. As explained in depth three weeks ago, the group of teams near the tournament cut line are weaker than ever, and it’s ultimately keeping the Tar Heels alive.
That trend continued on the second to last Saturday of the regular season. Here are some notable results:
Bold indicates bubble team. First team indicates visitor, second team indicates home.
Minnesota 67, Nebraska 65
Arkansas 53, South Carolina 72
Georgia 83, Texas 67
Indiana 78, Washington 62
Oklahoma 84, Ole Miss 87
Creighton 61, Xavier 83
Notre Dame 71, Wake Forest 74
SMU 68, Stanford 73
As of Friday night, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had Arkansas and Nebraska in his “Last Four Byes.” Oklahoma, Indiana, and Texas sat on his “Last Four In.” Georgia, North Carolina, and Xavier were three of the “First Four Out.” Conference foes Wake Forest and SMU rounded out the marginalized bubble in the “Next Four Out.”
Results from Saturday will likely shuffle those teams quite a bit. For North Carolina, it is difficult to expect a huge leap following a victory over a team as pitiful as Miami. That said, the Tar Heels will, at worst, hold their ground and give themselves a fighting change to earn an at-large bid next week.
The matchup against Virginia Tech categorizes similarly with some of North Carolina’s previous contests — must-win, and by margin. The rematch against Duke on Mar. 8 is, well, a much different story. Weeks ago it felt like the only path to a NCAA Tournament bid was downing the elite Blue Devils. Would it all but lock the Tar Heels into the big dance if they were to do so? Absolutely. But is there a path with a loss? Also, yes.
It’s never smart to leave the postseason fate in the hands of an ACC Tournament performance, but it’s been that type of year for North Carolina. If the Tar Heels could find a way to pick up a quality win in Charlotte, it’s likely they are at least in the conversation on Selection Sunday. Also, if the bubble continues to struggle, a loss against likely No. 1 seed Duke won’t bury UNC. The bigger concern is the lone win against Q1 opponents, which in theory could be solved in the ACCT against someone other than the Blue Devils.
Lastly, if you’re a sicko like me, it is worth monitoring North Carolina’s potential seed in the ACC Tournament. Currently the No. 6 seed (three-way tie at 12-6 with Wake Forest, SMU) would matchup with the winner of the No. 11/No. 14 contest. With a win, the Tar Heels would see No. 3 seed (currently Clemson) in their second contest. If North Carolina were to rise to the 4/5 seed this week, it would set up a potential round three with Duke. Searching for quality wins, that draw would likely not favor UNC’s tournament chances. Worth monitoring.