There are 14 teams left with NCAA tournament hopes as the National Collegiate women’s hockey season reaches the conference championship weekend.
Four semifinal games Friday and five championship games Saturday leave 512 possible scenarios for how the PairWise Rankings will look when Selection Sunday arrives.
Here are the percentage of the 512 scenarios in which the 14 remaining teams get into the field, broken down by their status.
These teams have locked up a spot in the tournament
Wisconsin 100%
Ohio State 100%
Cornell 100%
Colgate 100%
Minnesota 100%
Minnesota Duluth 100%
These teams still can get in as an at-large team even if they don’t win their conference tournament
Penn State 91.2%
Clarkson 82.2%
St. Lawrence 76.6%
These teams need to win their conference championship game
Northeastern 50%
Boston University 50%
Mercyhurst 50%
Sacred Heart 50%
Long Island 50%
Here’s what else we know
• Wisconsin and Ohio State will finish as the No. 1 and No. 2 overall seeds, respectively.
• Minnesota, Cornell and Colgate will finish in the third, fourth and fifth spots, in some order. Minnesota hosts a regional in 88.5% of the scenarios, with Cornell at 69.5% and Colgate at 42%.
• Penn State still gets in as an at-large team in 82.4% of scenarios if it loses the Atlantic Hockey final to Mercyhurst.
• A St. Lawrence win over Colgate in the ECAC Hockey semifinals and a loss in the final has the Saints making the field in 86% of remaining scenarios.
• Out of the 128 scenarios that involve Clarkson winning its ECAC semifinal against Cornell but losing in the final, the Golden Knights make it as an at-large team in 69.5% of remaining scenarios.
• All of the scenarios that keep St. Lawrence and Clarkson out after wins in the ECAC semifinals and losses in the final involve Mercyhurst beating Penn State in the Atlantic Hockey final.
• The No. 6 overall seed will be either Minnesota Duluth (90.4% of scenarios) or St. Lawrence (9.6%).
• Four teams are in contention for the No. 7 overall seed: Penn State (60.9%), St. Lawrence (25%), Minnesota Duluth (9.6%) and Clarkson (4.5%).
• The No. 8 overall seed is down to three teams: Clarkson (65.2%), Penn State (30.3%) and St. Lawrence (4.5%).
• St. Lawrence (37.5%), Northeastern (25%), Boston University (25%) and Clarkson (12.5%) can be the No. 9 overall seed.
• If Mercyhurst beats Penn State in the Atlantic Hockey final, the Lakers will be the No. 10 overall seed. Otherwise, it’ll be the winner of the Hockey East final between Boston University and Northeastern.
• The winner of the NEWHA championship game between Long Island and Sacred Heart will be the No. 11 overall seed.