The Toronto Blue Jays’ discussions with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were the talk of the offseason and early spring training.
Guerrero Jr. set an early deadline this spring for talks. If a deal was reached, he’d remain with the Blue Jays for perhaps the remainder of his career. If a deal wasn’t reached, he’d play out the final year of his contract in Toronto and become a free agent.
All along, a long-term contract before free agency was highly unlikely. Why would Guerrero Jr., fresh off watching Shohei Ohtani sign for $700 million and Juan Soto sign for $765 million, skip free agency and sign a contract with Toronto? It made no sense all offseason, especially during spring training. If the Blue Jays were to extend Guerrero Jr., the time to do it was two years ago. Not 12 months before free agency.
So what did the Jays’ and Guerrero Jr.’s contract talks look like? The slugger told ESPN that he proposed a contract to the Blue Jays for 15 years and less than $600 million.
“I know the business,” Guerrero Jr. said. “I lowered the salary demands a bit, but I also lowered the number of years. I’m looking for 14 [years]. I would like 14, 15, even 20 if they give them to me, but doing it the right way.”
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the Discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
Why Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s contract demands didn’t happen with the Blue Jays
The initial takeaway from that is no team is giving Guerrero Jr. a 15-year contract. Of course, he’s 25 years old and will be 26 when he’s a free agent. But no team would give that to a first baseman. That’s just not plausible and, despite his immense talent and career trajectory pointing toward the Hall of Fame, it’s simply not happening.
It is possible, however, for his contract to exceed $500 million. He’s one of baseball’s premier sluggers, coming off a season in which he hit .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs and 103 RBI. In his six-year career, he’s hitting .288/.363/.500 with an .863 OPS, 160 home runs and 507 RBI.
With the teams that are likely to be involved in the bidding for Guerrero Jr. this offseason — the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets and many others — his price will only rise. That’s why $500 million is possible. But 15 years is out of the question. That’s simply not happening.
So, it makes sense why the Blue Jays balked at that ask. But it’s completely on the front office for allowing his contract to get to this point.